What makes you think they're not trying? The incentive has always been there. They simply fail to succeed.

There’s trying and then there’s trying.

If ASML’s output were absolutely necessary to the US or the rest of the world, and if no replacement could be made, the Netherlands would have infinite leverage and be the most powerful country in the world. That they aren’t tells you all you need to know about exactly how far they could take a strategy like what you’re describing. Yes, everyone needs ASML. But ASML also needs everyone else.

An elite toolmaker is nothing without the factories that use the tools.

The odds of the Dutch attempting to encumber the use of ASML machines by western bloc allies is similar to the odds of the sun going out suddenly. It ain’t gonna happen.