Why do you think no one is contradicting him?
The exponential growth model that pg presents is an obvious lie - you could use his exact explanation to claim that good founders will soon become trillionaires, all it takes is 9 months of 93% growth after your first few billions; quadrillionaires will soon follow. The obvious reality is that exponential growth is just a small phase in any company's history, and it is anyway limited by the size of the market(s) it is operating in. A company can quickly capture a market, but not quickly grow forever.
Then, he completely hand waves away the externalities, lawlessness, self dealing and similar issues that are the supporting power of all such growth events. He claims this is all powered by "making your users happy", which makes them tell others about your business, as if every restaurant that people fawn over becomes a billion dollar business in 1-5 years. Even the examples he can think of of companies that did this are infamously bad companies that have become rightly hated and accused of spreading various forms of social ills - e.g. social media addiction induced by Meta, spy ads by Google, excessive tourism and house price increases by Airbnb, or the erosion of worker protections by Uber. There isn't a single billion dollar company that doesn't at least get accused of similar problems, which represent t the meat of the argument, and pg ignores this completely in favor of the "build something useful" model.
I agree with you, but what would be the argument against Athletes and someone like J.K. Rowling (Harry Potter author)?
The chart on the site below shows JK Rowling's net worth growth was pretty much linear. $100M per two years until about 2006, then $100M a year after that.
She also pays full UK tax on her earnings, the 36th most of any individual.
https://moneynation.com/jk-rowling-net-worth/
But that's not a response to my question.
It is in the context of this thread, because the article is about exponential growth.
Founders are often synonymous with their businesses. In the case of celebrities the relevant exploitation is carried out by others in the value chain, they are just the lure/source.
There's no such thing as a billionaire athlete. There are a handful of athletes who went on to become billionaires through their business dealings, like Michael Jordan, or Ion Țiriac or LeBron James. The arguments are exactly the same for them as for any other billionaire - that their businesses are either not really worth as much as the numbers suggest, or that their business engaged in various problematic practices.
For authors, the arguments are again quite simple - billionaire authors or directors don't become billionaires by selling books or movies, they become billionaires from much larger businesses that employ way more people who were collectively much more critical to the success of said businesses than the authors themselves. JK Rowling didn't become a billionaire until the movie franchise and the toy mega production began. If the movies hadn't happened, or the toys hadn't happened, she would have just been an extremely rich multimillionaire.
You> you could use his exact explanation to claim that good founders will soon become trillionaires,
PG> I don't want anyone to accuse me of using unrealistic numbers, so let's take a more conservative growth rate. Let's see what happens at 15% a month. That's not rare at all.
You> it is anyway limited by the size of the market(s) it is operating in
PG> how long you can continue to grow at that rate depends on the size of the market.
You> Then, he completely hand waves away the externalities, lawlessness, self dealing and similar issues
Not addressing an issue, that doesn't undermine the points he does make, is not hand waving.
Hallmarks of clear instead of reactionary thinking: you don't lash out at people for things they said, that you agree with, or things they didn't say, that you would have disagreed with.
Make your own (good) points. No need for framing around disagreement or other misleading tie ins.
I feel just as disgusted and frustrated by some rich people. But lots of people quietly become billionaires now, from normal companies that produce sensible services or goods people want. Substitute "rich" for "billionaire" to account for inflation, and increased globalization, and this has been true for a long time.
He does put caveats around his initial, condescendingly worded points. The problem is that those caveats are either too small, or they completely contradict his initial point.
Again, if all it takes to become a billionaire is 15% growth rate for 5 years, which is easy, then if you start with two billion dollars and grow at 15% per month, you'll be a trillionaire in 5 years. And 5 years after that, a quadrillionaire. If the billionaires are literally generating billions of new value, what explains why trillions can't be generated in the same way?
If the market is limited, then it means that you can't grow your way to a billion dollars, you have to displace others - either competitors in the same market, or other markets as well. So now there's a much clearer chance that you're using underhanded means to actually get your billions - you're not growing a new pristine market that people just love, you might just be edging out competitors or snuffing out other markets that had existed before - and perhaps were limited by things like regulations or externalities that you simply choose to ignore.
And the question of externalities and unfair competition and corruption is not tangential, it is the whole point that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Bernie Sanders or others in this anti-billionaire movement are making. Not talking about it is simply ignoring their argument. The problem isn't "oh, I didn't realize that simply growing at 15% every month for 5 years will make a million dollar business into a billion dollar business". It's "the actions that you need to take in order to continue growing at 15% every month for 5 years are going to include things like un priced externalities, corruption, cartel behaviors, etc". Addressing how you can sustain this growth, and how the markets can have so much money in them, are exactly the most important things - not the trivial math of exponential growth that he discusses, condescendingly, at length.
I agree with almost everything.
Except: you don't have to be a scourge to make a billion dollars. Even though some do, or go down that road later.
And your points would be just as valid and relevant, without re-framing a straightforward tautologically correct post as the foil.
millionaire is not a billionaire :)
Some example >1B companies off the top of my head: DataDog, Sentry, Snowflake, Okta, MongoDB
Isn't Dropbox the canonical HN example of a "stupid and obvious idea" that anybody could build for themselves and would never pay for?
Now with a 6bil market cap is seems.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8863
(Apologies to BrandonM for reminding everybody...)
> (Apologies to BrandonM for reminding everybody...)
BrandonM doesn’t mind:
> I really don’t mind the commentary. I’m long past being frustrated about being misinterpreted, and I learned a lot from it, anyway.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27070138
But dang does:
> my heart sinks a little every time I see this brought up
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27067281
It’s thoughtful context that I think everyone mentioning BrandonM and Dropbox should be familiar with.
> DataDog,
It's just grepping logs on steroids
> Sentry
Hooks on error handlers in JavaScript
> Snowflake
Anyone can just use parquet or DuckDB
>Okta
No digital sovereignty for those who can't manage users' passwords
> MongoDB
JSONB fields in Postgres, anyone?
/s
Even his examples (Meta, Google, Airbnb, Uber) are "hated and accused" mostly by pundits and activists. Their users and investors are overall rather happy with their services (all have healthy competition) and their employees can quit and work for somebody else at any moment.
It's almost like the people who spend their time thinking and researching the positives and negatives of a particular company/service come to different conclusions than the people who make money off the company or are directly marketed it.
> people who spend their time thinking and researching the positives and negatives
If only we could trust such big hearted people who selflessly donate their time and expertise for thinking and researching - without asking those pesky little questions like "what do they stand to gain? what hidden agenda do they have? what ideology dictates their value system? what axes to grind and biases do they harbor?"
I'd rather trust the people directly involved, whose interests are mostly clear and known.
>I'd rather trust the people directly involved, whose interests are mostly clear and known.
That seems like a wild statement to me. Just so I understand what you're saying. Are you saying you would trust Meta's statements on if their algorithms are harmful to youth/society over independent researchers because those researchers might have some hidden bias?
No, I am not saying I trust Meta's statements at all. I am just saying that I have ZERO trust in those "independent researchers".
I am old enough to remember when "researchers" and "experts" where warning us about the evils of violent FPS gaming, the whole panic over teens and kids playing Doom. The Columbine shooting. The end was nigh! Of course, it was all blown out of proportions...
If you ask any of those questions to people directly involved, the answer is the same for all 4: money
At least for meta, its employees, and its customers (advertisers), and its users, you can infer easily why they are involved. Researchers have other motivations like currying favor via an opinion or paper with a particular benefactor, or the tenure game, or 1000 other hidden things you cannot reason about without disclosure on their part.
PS I'm not a fan of Meta.
it is simple fact economy is based on maths that require a percentage growth or death from everyone. denying that is denying maths.
There will not be next quadrillionaire soon because there are economic crashes that kick economy down each time so it has space to climb again.
That is how its been historically and how it will continue unless the math underpinning it will change.
Both you and PG are missing the mark here.
PG made the error thinking that this is just people misunderstanding math and exponential growth, which created a convoluted math section that could have simply been explained as - if you start with a million dollar and double every month, you'll be a Billionaire in less than a year. He also didn't really touch well on why many people hate large companies / billionaires.
You are making the mistake of using a moralization framework that equivocate being accused of something to being bad for society + not looking at the alternative (i.e. even if it's true that every Billion dollar company is "bad/exploitative/etc.", that doesn't mean that the (realistic) alternative is better for society or people.
The reality is that companies like Google, Amazon, NVidia, etc. have create an immense amount of wealth for their founders and investors, but also created an immense amount of value in society. There is a real problem of incentives when you prioritize growth endlessly, as it leads to perverse incentives such as that ones these companies are accused of - leading you to progressively take more and more less positive actions in order to achieve this growth. So I don't disagree with the general premise that growth leads to moral problems, but I do disagree with saying that building big companies is bad for society.
It's not even like unbounded exponential growth is a new or "startup" thing either. PGs story is just the grains of rice on the chessboard legend. (or depending on the culture telling the story, perhaps wheat on a chessboard, according to google)
Like poet/warrior/advisor that convinces the King to give them one grain of rice on the first square of the chessboard, two grains of rice on the second square, four grains of on the third square, eight on the fourth - and so on, doubling the number of grains each square until the 64th square. The King can no more deliver 2^64 grains of rice that PG's founder keep her 93% growth rate consistent for 64 months (or even the calculated 9.5 months to make her a billionaire).
Yes, it's true that a very few tech startup founders create billion dollar wealth by "making what the people want" - but anybody trying to tell you the naive compound interest math makes it inevitable, is trying to sell you something (like perhaps their companies startup accelerator program or venture capital investment opportunities).
"Corn" is the general word for the most common cereal crop of a region, and the word for an individual grain of such a plant, in case you wish to use the corn-on-a-chessboard story without the qualification.
That seems to be true only in British English. In other dialects (USA, Canada, Australia), corn refers only to maize. (I'd never heard corn used as a general term, though Miriam-Webster does affirm this British usage.)
> There is a real problem of incentives when you prioritize growth endlessly, as it leads to perverse incentives such as that ones these companies are accused of - leading you to progressively take more and more less positive actions in order to achieve this growth.
What negative actions has Google Amazon and Nvidia done due to them prioritizing growth endlessly?
For Google, they didn't prioritize growth or they would have moved on AI a decade ago, but they were afraid of having tech journalists who hate them already write mean articles about how their AI is harmful.
Amazon just .. I don't know, keeps squeezing out operational efficiencies that get me next day delivery? Or developing AWS to enable other people to build apps?
Nvidia sells GPUs. Maybe you're a gamer and the push into AI means higher GPU prices?
I'm at a loss here. I don't think anyone is mad at these companies outside of a tiny vocal terminally online minority.
All of the companies you mention are at minimum engaged in monopolization and anti-competitive mergers as well as exploiting tax loopholes.
More specific criticisms:
Amazon
- They exploit factory workers that have to piss in bottles to keep up with productivity quotas and have high workplace injury rates. When they take time off to recover they are fired.
- They commit intellectual property theft, by copying top selling products and putting their hands on the scales to divert traffic to their clones.
NVidia
- Used software lock-in of CUDA to gain advantage in hardware sales.
Google
- Steals your information. Uses its browser to compete unfairly in other markets (mobile phone OS, etc).
Elon Musk / Tesla / SpaceX
- Bought Twitter and used it to influence elections and voters, promote racism / nazi sympathizers.
One of those is not like the others
>- Used software lock-in of CUDA to gain advantage in hardware sales.
>Amazon just .. I don't know, keeps squeezing out operational efficiencies
There's a human cost to this. Amazon warehouses are famous for their bad working conditions.
>but also created an immense amount of value in society
I would say value is subjective. For example, some people might consider a successful game as having created value. Others might view it as too addictive and see the negative value on society as a whole.
It could be very true that in the long arc of history, most of the "value" these companies have created is seen as a net negative. Take smartphones for example. They have created "value" but it's very possible that in 100 years when we better can evaluate what they have done to kids who grew up with them, we well conclude that they were a net negative until their usage was rained in. The only opposing force is government regulation and that's exactly what is wrong with these types of companies (and billionaires in general). They are the ones that stop reasonable legislation from happening because they have too much power because they are so large/rich.
You didn't prove him wrong.
You and Paul are both claiming it's extremely hard.
A restaurant won't scale - most ideas won't scale - because they're not useful enough.
These companies are not criminal enterprise and they don't steal money or threaten them with violence: they just offer them products and ecosystem and most people are dumb enough to ruin their life with it. Don't get me wrong: I hate them and I ban social media for my kids, but it doesn't make them evil.
The bad actors are thugs with guns stealing your purse and the government stealing your tax money or threatening you with jail.
To give another, less controversial example, I don't think companies selling products with sugar and seed oils are bad, even though they likely have the highest combined reduction of life expectancy across all people - but I hate them too.
> A restaurant won't scale - most ideas won't scale - because they're not useful enough
Counterexample, a restaurant worth $202 billion: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mcd/market-cap/
One of the arguments against billionaires really deserving that much money is that while they own the shares, the scaling up is done by a labour force that doesn't capture this growth, "only" (so goes the argument, I do know about share options) "their wages".
How many burger flippers get compensation in the form of shares in the parent company? I genuinely don't know, but I do expect it to mostly be in the form of pension funds rather than stuff they can see in their working lives. Pension funds are a lot of money, they need to be so those with them can retire, same logic as FIRE because being a pensioner is the first three initials of FIRE.
This is probably for the best, owing to something not explicitly mentioned in the article: startups are risky. This is as much a lottery question as it is an effort question, because "cool idea" absolutely does not mean "make it and they will come", no matter how hard working the founders (and first hires) are.
> they just offer them products and ecosystem and most people are dumb enough to ruin their life with it.
Also an argument for El Chapo and friends (if we didn't criminalize their products and add the violence around the trade, see Alcohol and Tobacco).
> - but I hate them too.
Why do you hate them if you don't think they are bad?
You seem to be saying, "it's not illegal; I will hate it, but it is not bad". What is "illegal" is an arbitrary classification that different countries choose. That's the point of what the unnamed politician (it's AoC I think?) is saying: those things should be illegal.