Indeed, I used the word "likely" for a reason. n = 1 isn't enough to identify a pattern. Try different models, try re-rolling the answers, and try turning reasoning off (models can catch "knee-jerk" mistakes in their chain-of-thought).

I doubt even Opus 4.8 gets it right 100% of the time, however this specific example is also one I've left feedback about in multiple places, so it's also probable that newer models are more likely to get it right.

E: In fact, I just tried with Opus 4.8 through API, no tools and reasoning off, and got the following response:

"The first Black man in space was Guion "Guy" Bluford, an American astronaut who flew aboard the Space Shuttle Challenger on August 30, 1983, as part of mission STS-8. It's worth noting a related distinction: Arnaldo Tamayo Méndez, a Cuban of African descent, actually became the first person of African heritage in space earlier, in September 1980, aboard the Soviet Soyuz 38 mission. He is often recognized as the first Black person and first person of Latin American descent in space. So depending on the specific criteria: Arnaldo Tamayo Méndez (Cuba) — first person of African descent in space (1980) Guion Bluford (USA) — first African American in space (1983)"

The correct answer is there, yes, but why does the wrong answer come out first?