This tracks. In spite of the hype it seems pretty clear the model gains are now in a very strong logarithmic fall off. The curve is flattening and flattening fast.

And we're still not to a point where you can fully delegate coding tasks to a model like you would a human. I'm just using Claude for code review so far and while it's definitely valuable as a reviewer and catching real issues, it's still making pretty critical mistakes. Mistakes a junior might make, but a mid probably wouldn't.

Which makes me feel like I can't fully delegate to it. Whenever I try, I end up spending more time reviewing (and rewriting) its code and testing it than I would have spent writing the code myself and asking Claude to review it.

Given that we're starting to see the real costs of AI, and that the economics of it do not actually work, and those costs are still increasing substantially (the cost increase of Fable over Opus is no joke), this makes me feel all the more that we're headed for a bubble pop.