Deeply concerning. How likely is this to become reality?

America has somehow managed to hang on to the right to encryption, despite plenty of well-heeled opponents, so it's possible to hang on to the right to open-source models. But it'll take a lot of vocal support, since there's strong incentive for Anthropic to try to cajole the government into banning competition (and they've already crossed that particular Rubicon, whereas OpenAI to my knowledge hasn't and at least still releases some open-source models like gpt-oss-120b).