What's interesting is that one one hand LLM pumps are claiming a path to AGI.. while on the other hand, they are duct-taping in deterministic plugins for specific prompt types they find it better to offload...

In X years is it just going to be a thin OS-like layer where a majority of work is being handled by other "programs".

> while on the other hand, they are duct-taping in deterministic plugins for specific prompt types they find it better to offload

So, in essence, just like human beings?

My point is what makes this terribly different than Alexa skills

For this category of problems, no, very unlike human beings.

Right.. plumbing in specific plugins for specific prompt forms feels like an expert system, rather than some general purpose intelligence.

Also big picture its hard to see it as some sort of self-improving intelligence if humans are hand crafting these paths and tools for it.

That doesn't seem very persuasive. The one example of a non-A GI we have, humans, does the same thing. We've been offloading arithmetic for at least 4000 years.

> In X years is it just going to be a thin OS-like layer where a majority of work is being handled by other "programs"

That is my hopeful ideal

In which case it’s just a neat extension of search