In the one direction the hardware continues to improve, new buildouts continue to come online, and methods for improving the parameter efficiency of models continue to be discovered.

In the other direction models continue to grow larger, new customers continue to arrive, and existing customers continue to find ever more creative ways to burn large quantities of tokens as the prices fall.

I doubt anyone can say with certainty where the equilibrium will be 1 or 5 years from now largely because (among many other things) it's impossible to predict how much of the current economy AI will end up eating. In general though the third party providers of open weights models are probably the most reliable data source available since they have little to no incentive to subsidize usage.