In modern CPUs a mispredicted branch is much more expensive than a memory write.
The unsaid assumption is that the array is filled with random values between 0 and 1000, so the "if" condition has a 50% of chances to be true. The branch is mispredicted 50% of times.
Of course this trick won't work when the statement protected by "if" is a more complex and costly action, or one that can't be undone (in the example, note that when the counter is not incremented, the value written to memory will be overwritten in the next cycle, so it's "undone" in a certain way).
> In modern CPUs a mispredicted branch is much more expensive than a memory write.
Mostly because of caching. The writes either go to the same address as a previous one or move only a small increment, so most writes are likely going to hit L1 cache. If it wrote to a random memory location after every iteration the cost of a misprediction would probably disappear in the noise.