Marc Andreessen argued that we've already reached AGI. He says that the top AI models give better answers than 99% of people he has access to, and he has access to some of the best people in their field.
I'm getting more convinced. I mean, sure it makes dumb mistakes sometimes but its a particular set of self serving mistakes, commenting out tests in order to pass. We obv don't want this behavior but I wouldn't say it's dumb.
It'll be like the Turing test, which we just blew past years ago and no one cared. After all the hand-wringing about sentience and rights of the AI if it passes the Turing test, and now we just have AI bots running 24/7 writing slop.
How does everyone else feel?
> Marc Andreessen argued that we've already reached AGI. He says that the top AI models give better answers than 99% of people he has access to, and he has access to some of the best people in their field.
He stands to make billions if enough people believe him — unless you also do, consider that you’re the mark. For example, if that was true, it would have to mean that AI companies either aren’t letting customers use the good models or are instructing them to frequently make errors which reveal a fundamental lack of reasoning ability.
Consider also that his wealth means he hasn’t had to defend an idea stringently since the 90s. I wouldn’t be surprised if he does think LLMs give deep answers because it often looks that way until you critically review the response and ask questions like what’s missing which require you to have a decent understanding of the problem domain.
And you stand to lose your job and your identity as a programmer.
He makes billions but he already is a billionaire. Gaining billions more doesn't mean shit. The guy really has nothing to lose and the utility of what he gains contribute little to his life style.
I will tell you this. HN has been comically wrong about everything related to AI. They said driverless cars have no chance of becoming useable. Now Tesla FSD is almost there and I sleep in waymo cars. HN said AI will never code, now everyone uses it to code.
It's fucking stupid. This is one of the smartest forums on the internet but HN becomes next to stupid when predicting AI. Why? Because humans can't face the truth. When the victim of attack is yourself, it doesn't matter how smart you are... you have to scaffold a rationalization to spare yourself as the victim. You have to lie to yourself and tell yourself that you matter.
The truth of it is, while LLMs are not the end game, AI in general is on a trajectory to take over. It shows us how meaningless our skills are... not only as programmers but as artists. That beautiful song you felt had greater meaning? It's all reproducible via an algorithm because it never really had a greater meaning. It was just a pattern.
> Gaining billions more doesn't mean shit. The guy really has nothing to lose and the utility of what he gains contribute little to his life style.
You don’t become a billionaire because you aren’t committed to making a number go up far after you no longer have any significant unmet needs. He’s spending his life focused on business deals because that’s what he cares most about — if his true love was science, philanthropy, etc. he’d have been able to do that full time a couple decades ago.
>Marc Andreessen argued that we've already reached AGI. He says that the top AI models give better answers than 99% of people he has access to, and he has access to some of the best people in their field.
He has access to employees and yes-men. What he actually needs to hear, nobody will tell him, AI even less so. Every shit idea he has, would be "what a bright idea"-ed by both everyone around him and AI.
And of course there's the little matter that he makes money and increases his power by selling AI. What seller doesn't promote their stuff as the greatest ever?
Marc Andreessen has a strong financial incentive to feel this way and to convince others to feel this way.
I also think it’s easy to think that AI gives good answers if you don’t know the field well. In fields where I know the material, the answers are pretty variable and can be quite bad.
HNers have strong incentive to feel the opposite. Humanity in general has strong incentive to feel the opposite.
AI is not only replacing programmers, but art and the meaning of being human itself. It's showing us how trivial all of human creation is as it's just patterns from an algorithm.
Knowing the question is half of the answer. LLMs are great at scoping your context and answering precisely what you asked; it's also why they go off the rails when they misunderstand a part of your question. Incidentally, they're great at "knowing" and reaching for knowledge.
Humans have the advantage of perspective. We always lack some knowledge and answer broadly. This is bad if you have a particular goal in mind, but better if you're just generally learning, because you see more and learn to discriminate the correct from the wrong. And most importantly, being wrong is part of human ingenuity - because sometimes we turn something "obviously" wrong into something right.
He would tell you NFTs were AGIs if it might get you to buy them.
Getting the right answers is just half of it, you need to know the right questions to ask. I haven't yet seen AI crack that one.
> Marc Andreessen argued that we've already reached AGI. He says that the top AI models give better answers than 99% of people he has access to, and he has access to some of the best people in their field.
Investor with vested interest in AI companies makes claim of reaching "AGI".
He is one of the last people to listen to about AGI. Unless the term "AGI" means something entirely different to him vs to independent researchers vs to CEOs, since the term has become entirely meaningless.
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I’m not an AI stan by any means and certainly no fan of Andreessen, but using the term “clanker” immediately biases your statement and can discredit what is a well-referenced or well-meaning comment.