I'm not a expert on video encoding
But i wonder if the future could depend less on fixed-function compression methods and more on AI networks that recreate the video but weight much less that a compressed video.
Neural codecs such as github.com/Orange-OpenSource/Cool-Chic
It will probably depend on whether NPUs are universally available in smartphones, and whether we get a standard API for accessing NPUs. But I don't know whether AI-based codecs can have battery usage competitive with fixed-function hardware.
Agreed, unless AI progress slows down enough that it becomes reasonable to bake weights into circuitry, the conventional approach will probably remain preferable for encoding, at least on power constrained devices.