Yeah, it’s the same problem as nuclear proliferation.
We see what happened with Ukraine when they gave up their nukes in exchange for a promise of protection.
The same could be true of countries who forgo AI development directly in exchange for promises.
More poignantly we saw it in Iran.
Wanting more independence from a former imperial master != building an oppressive government on theology and building a nuclear program that seems to exist to back that theology by threatening a nation that causes you theocratic issues.
I agree, Iran != America