Reality has types and identity. Static types just make sense.
That all being said, the JVM has never broken into local apps, even with JavaFx. I think the thought of installing a JVM, plus then installing an app is no longer a workflow most users will tolerate. Electron has proved though people don't mind downloading a multi-gig app anymore however, so maybe this is no longer an issue.
MCPs and complex CLI tools running locally/native via graalvm might be a great usecase for Java. https://quarkus.io/blog/mcp-server/
I have unknowingly bought commercial desktop software that turned out to be Java + SQLite under the hood. Don't know what they were using for UI.
jpackage/jlink lets you distribute an exe, dmg, etc, with the JVM packaged inside. I have java desktop apps which are like 50mb.
Bitwig and Intellij stand out to me
Yeah Intellij is incredible, and I believe it's Swing. And Eclipse is ambulatory, but the SWT/OSGI frameworks are fighting yesterday's battles. All of this aside, I yet to find this level of IDE/Debugger in any other language.
I'll check out Bitwig.