You’re right, the arpg analogy isnt great, it’s too simplistic. I was trying to come up with something heavily stochastic where people are coming up with strategies to get the odds in their favor. Maybe closer to speculating on the real estate market? But even that feels too simplistic compared to LLMs. Even the definition of a win isn’t well defined.
Actually it’s really its own thing, I don’t think the slot machine analogy works too well, you also have fixed odds (and you know they aren’t in your favor), and a binary output
The analogy to slot machine is that you're spending your own resources in hope of a reward. So you're ultimately bound by your resources and your strategy doesn't count for much in the grand scheme of things.
With employees, there's a lot of punishments in place for people to not want to mess up. Loss of wages and reputation, prison time,... Startup do not fail because they have a bug-ridden product, they fail because of the market.
With AI, all bets are off. They're not aligned with your goals and it's very hard to discern when they go off unless you're an expert. And if you are one, at best it's just a slight boost in typing especially with all the works involved in software development.