> How much longer is knowing what you're doing going to be a moat?
For a looooonnnnngggg time, unless there's massive progress in AI research.
Fundamentally, next token prediction is limited. Granted, I'm pretty amazed at how well it's done, but if you can't activate the right parts of the models (with your prompts), then you're not going to get good results.
And to be fair, for lots of things this doesn't matter. Steve in Finance or Mindy in Marketing can create dashboards that actually help them, and the code quality mostly doesn't matter.
For stuff that needs to be shipped, monitored and maintained you still need to know what you're doing.
We also need to consider the price. At some point the price will need to go up (assuming cost of producing each token doesn’t drop dramatically) to generate enough revenues to cover not only operating expenses and taxes (once the nol carry forward’s are used up) but reinvestment. OAI and Anthropic are burning through their cash balances. OAI has also stated some very ambitious plans to develop models beyond just programming… I will be very intrigued to see how they are going to generate enough revenue to fund all this in the future.