Here is my take on the same topic: The AI Productivity Paradox: Why the AI Multiplier is Less Than 2x. https://www.forrestthewoods.com/blog/the-ai-productivity-par...

My hypothesis is that AI greatly accelerates only a small portion of development. It's pretty effing great at prototypes. But the net acceleration factor is just not that large currently.

Opus has been out for ~6 months. If AI were a net 100x multiplier then we'd be seeing what previously took 5 years ship in just 2.6 weeks. This is objectively not happening.