> No, the US is _leading_ the AI race, but the race isn't over.
When someone says their football team is winning in the first half, do you say, "Umm, no, they're leading, not winning!"
> No, the US is _leading_ the AI race, but the race isn't over.
When someone says their football team is winning in the first half, do you say, "Umm, no, they're leading, not winning!"
When a cyclist is leading a pack and pushing themselves against the air resistance for half the race, do you expect that cyclist to win, or one of the ones behind that's been taking it easy in the slipstream?
It's a race metaphor not a football metaphor.
I have never ever heard a commentator say something like "Arsenal are currently winning with 2-0 against X". It is always leading: "Arsenal are currently leading with 2 goals against X".
If they got there by tiring themselves out more than the other team, yes.
I find it very strange that the GP felt the need to correct a difference between leading and winning. If you're at the front of the pack in a race, you are both leading the pack and winning the race.
If your team has more points than the other team, you are both leading the contest and winning the contest.
It is a distinction without a difference.
The elephant in the room, and where the analogy breaks down, is that a race has an end, the finish line. A sports match has a victory condition of some type. Nobody has a damn clue as to the victory condition of this hyperscalar craze. Anyone who says otherwise is incorrect.
GP here, leading and winning are different things in the race context/metaphor.
In foot/cycling races there's often a pack leader, that leader is often not the winner of the race, all they're doing is taking the brunt of the air resistance while everyone else slipstreams behind. For a casual observer it seems that the pack leader will win, but everyone knows that it's gonna be someone that paced themselves that's going to overtake the first spot at the tail end of the race.
You’re moving the goalposts and tying to one specific sport. I didn’t say “winner” nor did anyone else. “Winning” is the operative word, and tying the whole analogy to cycling is as close to a strawman as one can get while having the ability to claim otherwise.
The analogy to what "frontier" ai labs are doing is very close.
Yes?!
Well, if they were up by 4 and now it’s 4-3 and the team is under massive pressure, “we’re still winning” is of little condolence to the fans.