There isn't a war today. However China wants Taiwan: war is future option they preparing for - they might or might not go to war but they are clearly preparing. The US is likely to get involved in such a war and I would expect Europe to join in as well.
Don't ask me what Trump is doing though.
China going for Taiwan would be the worst geopolitical move of the century, potentially worse than Germany's decision to invade the soviet union. They talk about reunification because it's good propaganda and both sides want it to a degree, but doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do unless they really don't like their path of becoming an international trade and manufacturing hub
> but doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do unless they really don't like their path of becoming an international trade and manufacturing hub
Sounds rational, but this decision is in a small number of hands. And those hands can change quickly. I also thought the US would never threaten to annex territory of a NATO member.
Chinas power structure is misunderstood. Theres a small number of hands, yes, but they don't change quickly and actually understand how to play geopolitics
Offer to purchase imperial territory of a NATO member is not the same as a threat to annex it.
But threat to annex is what's happening.
But we threatened to annex it.
> would be the worst geopolitical move of the century
From a political perspective, perhaps.
> doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do
From a military perspective, taking Taiwan by force would allow China to, "threaten the sea lines of communication and to strengthen its sea-based nuclear deterrent in ways that it is unlikely to otherwise be able to do." Taiwan would give China access to the Philippine Sea. https://gwern.net/doc/technology/2022-green.pdf
Or the Japanese bombing Pearl Harbor which was another dumb move. At this point, the Chinese just need to bide their time by the year 2100 Taiwan will probably be part of China and North and South Korea probably will be reunified. Both are inevitable, and I don’t think it will take any shots went it happens.
China seems to be recently building up its forces and putting a lot of money into military. I think it would be foolish to just assume its all for show even if it might be in the end.
And quite frankly, its only geopolitically stupid if they lose. Consequences for this sort of thing usually tend to happen if the conflict is long and drawn out. If the win quickly the consequences would likely be minor.
> and both sides want it to a degree
Is "it" the propaganda (useful to politicians for achieving political power) or reunification? My sense is that the number of Taiwanese that are enthusiastic about reunification has probably bottomed out in recent decade(s)???
reunification. Yes, they've bottomed out as younger generations become more politically relevant but they still exist
Everything their military has been doing for the past ~20yr or so has been toward capturing and securing Chinese waters and beyond, including Taiwan. It's a negotiating chip for them.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-...
Just look at Iran. Nothing really happened to USA or Israel. Nothing will happen to China if they take Taiwan. Or maybe the "West" will boycott them and crash entirely.
The USA did not take Iran. They essentially shot off fireworks, killed the figure head and then got check mated.
Taking wasn't the goal. I don't understand the goal, but it is clear that taking Iran wasn't.
The U.S. isnt checkmated, the U.S. is enforcing a naval blockade against Iran and their oil based economy is in a free fall with rapid inflation. The U.S. is experiencing slightly higher gas prices but economy is still humming. Meanwhile the U.S. military has not exhausted all of its options while Iran has none.
The US is indeed checkmated like Afghanistan like Iraq and like Vietnam checkmated spinning your wheels spending money wasting money wasting time and wasting resources, checkmate.
With the addition of most countries now looking for other trade partners the Art of the no deal…
What would you consider a "win" condition here? I have no idea what the American administration is looking for as a win.
More like a draw it seems.
Definitely not.
Iran did billions in damage across the middle east, put a major dent in munitions stockpiles, and there is effectively no military way to shut down all of Iran and protect shipping. Too many drones, too many ballistic missiles, and it only takes one. This is basically like an insurgency on a macro level, where small and cheap weapons threaten very large very expensive targets.
Iran is completely blockaded right now:
https://mynews4.com/news/nation-world/centcom-naval-blockade...
The drones are useless if you dont have targeting systems which were taken offline by F35s 2 months ago.
Blocking Iran is going to do more damage to the world than it will do to Iran.
What targeting systems are you talking about? You can use optical targeting with a raspberry PI in the drone itself, pre programmed. Nothing for an F-35 to take out.
The EU is running out of jet fuel. 20-30% of the hydrogen needed for chip fab comes through the straight. Fertilizer for food comes through the straight, and planting season has already begun.
This was a political and economic disaster.
So what Iran's basically fucked and the USA just gets an economic boost from military spending?
> "They essentially shot off fireworks, killed the figure head and then got check mated"
I mean, that's certainly a take. A wholly inaccurate one, but it's a take.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Iranian_officials_kill...
they've made everyone very angry at them, and can handle that since everyone relies on them. China, however, is trying to build that trust and forcefully taking Taiwan would have very severe consequences. The reason the fallout from iran isn't as big as the fallout from a war with taiwan is because most of the west at most puts up with iran. Invading taiwan, meanwhile, would cause massive problems with chip production. Think the anger and distrust towards the US due to hormuz but 1,000 times worse
The difference is Iran is a terrorist regime that murders its own citizens and funds violence across the middle east.
so is the us, both are put up with because they control global trade to a degree
Don’t take China on face value, they have every incentive to promote a grifting military industrial complex in the US while focusing on competing in manufacturing. An actual war would fix a lot of the grifting in the US as it would align interests. Pretending they’ll go to war over Taiwan and not doing it is an effective strategy for undermining the US.
I hope you are right, but unfortunately there is no particular reason to trust China's leadership anymore. They are not nearly as obvious at Trump, but they are not on a good path.
I'm explicitly distrusting them, they're saying they want to take Taiwan and I don't believe them. I try to ground my belief in realpolitik, cynicism, and from my experience with strategy games. There is an element of manipulating your opponent into acting the way you want them to by sending them costly false signals, they have to be costly or they won't be believed. I think we (the West) are being played and the gifting elements in our political leadership are more than happy to play along. I'm sure China would like to take Taiwan if it wouldn't cost them anything, but the US is a waning hegemony so for now it is better to wait until the US is beyond fixing itself. At this rate that may not take long.
> I try to ground my belief in realpolitik, cynicism, and from my experience with strategy games
I'm trying to do that too but what the hell is going on with Putin? Why does he continue to engage in this ridiculously expensive war? I don't see any evil genius explanation anymore. It just seems like a mix of sunk-cost-fallacy and save-face.
I think many geopolitical decisions are actually based in irrational emotions of a hand full of people.
Germany, Japan, Russia, Great Britain, and the United States all within the last 125 years… The headshot was from within mainly self-inflicted.
I think Putin was and remains a rational actor, I know a lot of how that war is understood in the west is colored by a very effective propaganda campaign that I don’t have the time nor energy to counter.
But I will say, in a very broad stroke, we’re heading for a great power conflict and the US has two primary factions on foreign policy; the primacists vs the restrainers, both want to take on China (contain with war) but the primicits want to topple Iran first and set up Israel as a regional hegemony where the restrainers want to build up locally first. China knows this and Russia is a junior partner / quasi vassal state to China. China lacks modern war fighting experience which the Russian Ukraine war has been very helpful in fixing. Yes it’s very expensive, but so is losing a great powers conflict.
Is your claim that Russia is continuing to fight Ukraine as a favour to china in order that china get information on how modern war is fought and intel on western capabilities?
While it is undoubtedly true that china is learning everything it can from this conflict, and that russia is at least a little subservient to china, they aren't so subservient for this explanation to make sense.
He wants enlarge the imperium, get back what he feels was taken from the Russia - the territory they could control and now they cant.
Otoh, if you send the costly false signal of investing in your military, and your opponent doesn't buy it, you might as well use it since you just spent the money anyway and your opponent can't stop you since they didnt believe your signal.
Unfortunately if you are wrong it is an even worse disaster and so if there is any possibility we are all forced to play their game.
A grifting military industrial complex is unable to defend Taiwan even if it wanted to as evident by the exceedingly poor showing with Iran. The disastrous reality of doing what was done is already with us. If the US didn't take that bait it could have made better choices that would have left it in a stronger position militarily long term, if it made a real attempt at re-shoring civilian manufacturing it could cross subsidise dual use technology, but instead we have corrupt politicians doling out concessions for kickbacks.
> If the US didn't take that bait it could have made better choices that would have left it in a stronger position militarily long term
Like what though? If the problem is that not going to actual war has enabled the MIC to be captured by grifters, then "taking the bait" and going to war should actually help improve that by showing up the grifters and giving us a chance to switch to making stuff that works.
> Pretending they’ll go to war over Taiwan and not doing it is an effective strategy for undermining the US.
The bait is for the buildup that promotes the grifters.
> An actual war would fix a lot of the grifting in the US as it would align interests
We are in agreement. I made these points earlier in this chain.
The Iran war doesn't count as the alignment of interest requires an actual threat of being defeated.
> The Iran war doesn't count as the alignment of interest requires an actual threat of being defeated.
That's starting to sound a bit no-true-scotsman. If we need an existential threat to the US, that's not going to happen - realistically China conquering Taiwan or even building an empire around the Pacific would still not be felt as such a threat.
To align the interests there has to be a substantial negative consequence that would be felt by the grifters if the endeavor fails.
The US is already close to losing world hegemony status and it kinda needs it in order to print money / export inflation. A multipolar world is one where the US is greatly diminished and this will happen with or without losing a war.
> To align the interests there has to be a substantial negative consequence that would be felt by the grifters if the endeavor fails.
Like what though? The failure in Iran has had pretty substantial consequences that are being felt. If that's not good enough, what is? You were talking like you thought there was a realistic path to a better military, but consequences for the US aren't going to come much bigger than this.
You're conflating the grifters with the US in general, the grivers are able to continue grifting even at the expense of the US. This is requiring too much hand-holding from me so I'm done with this conversation.
> A grifting military industrial complex is unable to defend Taiwan even if it wanted to as evident by the exceedingly poor showing with Iran.
These two conflicts would be so different that i don't think it makes sense to draw this conclusion.
All China needs to do is do what they’re doing play the long game the United States is currently shooting itself in the head, if they’re smart, they should just sit back and watch the show by the year 2100 well you know. And coincidentally that also applies to Russia sit back and watch them do it to themselves.
In addition, some of the other countries like Canada, Mexico, Australia, and New Zealand had better get busy from within because they’ll be on their own. In the same applies probably to Europe.
“China” doesn’t care about Taiwan; Xi does. And he does not have until 2100 to wait.