> There is certainly no sign of these companies becoming more productive.

Oh, if you look at real signs, like uptime and number of bugs, they are becoming very clear.

But it's not clear how much of it is caused by the layoffs and how much is because of LLMs.

Well, not exactly productivity, but yes there are some symptoms of a reduction in quality from some companies. I was about to say not the three mentioned, but GitHub (owned by Microsoft) is certainly one, and Amazon seems to be having an uptick in outages that are anecdotally linked to use of AI. Anthropic, who we know are using AI a lot internally also have reliability problems.