> my P(doom) is quite low (~0.1)
10% or 0.1%? Either way, that's not low! If airplanes crash with that probability, we would avoid them at all cost.
> my P(doom) is quite low (~0.1)
10% or 0.1%? Either way, that's not low! If airplanes crash with that probability, we would avoid them at all cost.
10%; doomers say this kind of number is unreasonably optimistic, hence the blunt title of recent book by Yudkowsky and Soares. Do with this rank-ordering factoid, that 10% makes me an optimist, what you will.