I re-read that book every 10 years and try to think carefully about whether what Brooks wrote still holds.
The last three times I read the book, everything held.
This time, I'm not so sure: AI does change things significantly. Perhaps not for all teams and not all scales of software, but in my case (solo developer, complex software system) I did measure a 12x productivity increase [1].
Also, some of the problems Brooks describes became much easier, if not borderline trivial with AI. For example, maintaining design documentation that stays consistent with the software being built. I do this and it is no longer a problem.
I still think most of what Brooks wrote is applicable today. I think the biggest difference is that AI enables smaller teams to work on larger systems, and the biggest benefit is for single-person teams (ahem) like me. I see it as another step that allows me to tackle larger systems: the previous one was Clojure which reduced incidental complexity so significantly that I was able to develop the system to the size it is today. AI is the next step: it allows me to build features that would have taken me years in a span of months. Not because of "vibe coding", but primarily because I can work on a set of design documents and turn my ideas into a coherent design.
[1] For the nitpickers: yes, measured, not guessed. Yes, the metric was reasonable. No, it wasn't "lines of code" or something equally silly, in fact one of my main goals is reducing code size as much as possible. Yes, I compared larger time periods: 2 months with AI to an average of 12 months of the previous year. No, the metric wasn't gamed: this is a solo business and I have no interest in gaming my own metrics. I earn a living from this work, so this is as objective as it gets.
Dario Amodei said in the most recent interview with Dwarkesh that Anthropic currently gets achieves an increase of around 20-30% coding productivity, which tracks with my experience. What do you do to reap orders of magnitude more?
Also, how much more money do you make? Or are you working less?
I think if you build out simple sites it is 10x. That number tends to 1x as the project gets more complex.
Side projects where you try an idea are you not finding 1h now to do what was 10h work?
Sounds like a blog post on your experience would be very interesting.
Like a sibling comment - I'm also curious about what that 12x means for you and your business - same revenue at fewer hours? More revenue, fewer hours? Etc.
Maybe I’m misunderstanding but that sounds like a 6x improvement not 12x.
What did you measure? It’s a famously difficult problem, so I’m genuinely curious.