There is a phase transition where LLMs match or exceed humans' ability to do something, and from that point on, even if the difference between its previous version is small, it will go from something people use rarely, to something that people use all the time.

There was a time when the entire transportation infrastructure in the US was built around horses. Even after cars were invented, the cars weren't obviously better than horses for most people, especially because there wasn't any infrastructure to support them, but the infrastructure and the cars kept improving to the point where it was better for some people at some things, then suddenly it was better at most things, and then people stopped using horses, and we re-organized our entire transportation network around cars.

But there was never a revolutionary technological change. The technology of cars in the 1930s was the same fundamental technology as the cars in the 1890s. Just at some point it became "good enough" and that was it.

I think when people say that AI is a bubble, they are assuming that anything economically useful that LLMs cannot perform today is _qualitatively_ different from what LLMs can do right now, and that LLMs cannot do it even in theory, without some major technological innovation. But I have a suspicion that there are a large number of valuable things, that once LLMs advance just a little bit more, and harnesses and infra around them is improved a little bit more will just be completely taken over by LLMs.