I'm curious what broke the embargo. Did it leak or did a third party find it independently?

No embargo exists (or could possibly exist) in the first place.

Linux is open source, so every patch fixing the security bug is immediately visible to everyone. There is no workaround to that by the very design how the kernel is developed. The "embargo" people talking about is the rather stupid notion that if people keep their mouth shut and not write "THIS IS A LPE" straight in the patch description, everyone can pretend vulnerability is not leaked until the "official" message in the mailing list is sent.

This approach might have been defensible before, but in LLM era, when people have automated pipelines feeding diffs straight from the mailing lists to SotA models asking to identify probable security issues fixed by those, it is both stupid and dangerous.

My (novice) understanding is that embargoes are intended to provide time to 1) develop a patch and 2) distribute the patch.

For Linux/public open source, what you said is right about 2). Once the patch is visible to anyone, it's trivial to identify exploits for unpatched systems. But 1) is still a valid use-case for embargoes for Linux vulns, right? Like, if this patch had taken a few weeks to develop before being confirmed working and published, that's potentially valid grounds for not sharing details during that time (within reason), no?

Linux does actually have a proper embargo process. But, you're correct that in this case it wouldn't usually have been followed anyway. Bugs like this are fixed multiple times a week, anyone with basic kernel knowledge can see that they are potentially LPEs.

Usually, nobody even bothers to check. LPEs like this are too common to even categorise effectively.

The linked announcement specifically mentions that an embargo has been broken.

A link to the patch was posted in someone's X account. Someone else saw that and posted a working exploit in less than an hour (potentially exploited by an LLM, though other than the quick turnaround, claim not substantiated).

https://x.com/encrypted_past/status/2052409822998392962

it was published publicly by an unrelated third party

They're asking the nature of the third party's discovery/publishing. Someone on the inside who decided to leak it anonymously? Someone else who was able to access some private communication they shouldn't have been able to see? Or a third party who happened to discover the same vulnerability (which seems less unlikely than normal since this is so similar to Copy Fail), but didn't follow disclosure procedures?

The commit for the fix was public. Someone noticed. An exploit was published.

I think I read on the bug's website that "No fix has been released". I understood that as there is no public fix, but maybe it only means it's not in a tagged version of the kernel and no hotfixed distro kernels have been released?

The patch was posted to the kernel mailing list; someone saw the e-mail, read the patch, figured it out, and published an exploit very soon after.

The fix has been commited to the git tree for the `netdev` linux subsystem fork. That's how it was noticed by the grsecurity guy who published an exploit. Then, it will be merged by linus either into a RC/master for the next linux minor version release, or into the patch releases branch by GregKH/Sasha for already-released versions. Or in this case, both, because it's a security fix.

Following disclosure procedures? The main cause that kills the need to take security seriously.