reCAPTCHA is already so hard that I often can't solve the visual challenges, and Google has been blocking the audio challenges on VPNs (that is horrible for blind people) and also now the audio challenges are super hard.
Google Gemini can solve them and I don't think that it will take long for lower power AI systems to be able to solve them.
I will be unable to solve the phone verification because I use LineageOS for microG, but any fraudster can just buy a bunch of $30 android phones. Many people have trouble using a smartphone, so they use dumbphones, but they will be locked out. Many people just don't have any mobile phone because they don't think that it is useful.
Often illegitimate users don't even have to solve the captcha because whenever one shows up they can just trash the session and start over fresh. As long as they get to the desired result often enough they're golden. Not so for real users who only have one account on one or at most a handful of browsers.
I think you're spot on. This will block and inconvenience legitimate users while fraudsters have no problem buying more phones.
Not a useful direction for real end users.
The GitHub one I recently tripped on was the worst of all time. Part one of 9 or something, which of these three next sounds are bees? Or some small man rotating around spaces on a map. I have an eInk screen and it was nearly impossible to see. Extremely painful and ridiculous.