>> Within just this group the ratios between best and worst performances averaged about 10:1 on productivity measurements and an amazing 5:1 on program speed and space measurements!
> (although I’m personally skeptical of the “10x programmer” concept, the software industry overall does seem to accept it as true)
To be fair, this statement from Brooks doesn't entirely match with the "10x programmer" we talk about. My take on it is when someone says "10x programmer" today, they mean 10x more productive than the average, not 10x more productive than the worst. Brooks' statement is about the latter. If he'd looked at the difference between average and best, I would assume you'd get something more like a 2x or 4x programmer.
There's no such thing as a "10x" programmer, and anyone who uses it doesn't know what they're talking about.
10x relative to what exactly? It's not a statement grounded in any kind of reality.
There are 10x developers, your assertions are overly broad and unanchored from the insights large developer stables can create.
10x relative to <drumroll> other developers. Developers in the same place doing the same-ish things, only on metrics and outcomes you objectively have someone(s) making outputs that are outstripping teams and all their players.
Not 10x LoC, 10x problem to solution time, maintenance costs, and time/cost to create. At everything always? No, at relevant things. In fact, some of those nerds arguably go past that by being able to solve things the -4x to 5x’ers cannot. Any fulfillment is infinitely faster than non-fulfilment.
I’ve worked with several and have seen their projects numbers year on year in a large pool. SQL gurus who could get there inconceivably fast because their guruship let them conceive better. Independently created solutions that obviate existing systems and components, and got there >10x cheaper and were >10x cheaper to maintain.
Never outbid someone by planning to do way less, smarter and faster? 10x ain’t that much if the other dudes are average consultant houses.
I've never understood it to be literal, but from my experience there is a big difference between the folks that show up to work on time, jump right into their work, they pay attention in meetings, know code base, and have the ability "lock in" as my kids say. On the other hand you have folks that show up late, spend all day chatting at the water cooler, get distracted with home stuff, comment on hacker news all day, and only manage to squeeze in a few hours of actual work a day.
10x makes sense only in terms of specific technology platforms.
I'm a 10x programmer at building Django apps compared to a developer who has never worked with Django before.
Someone who developers against WordPress on a daily basis will easily 10x my own attempts at building things on that platform.
I don't think it's only about specific technologies. I have occasionally worked with someone who was 10x (or more) the average in the org, and it wasn't just producing new code: it was debugging faster, reviewing faster, providing an insight to another dev with a moment's thought that unblocks their whole sprint, and, yes, still producing many times as many PRs as typical. In a modern corporate environment, the main problem is giving such a person enough to do in enough variety so that they don't get bored.
It's a transparent exercise in ego-stroking to justify one's commitment to capital incentives.