nice first-principal analysis, but little connection to material reality, you're looking back at a mere 1-2 years. it is outsourcing dev labor that has killed the domestic market. engineering roles have been moving overseas now (latin america, southern europe, india). any american dev now will have international colleagues, something rarely the case 15 years ago.

not to say AI-tools do not contribute, they lower the bar of entry to the profession after all, but any C-suite/hiring manager is much more arbitrating labor expense than AI-subscriptions.