> When some normally ductile metal alloys are cooled to relatively low temperatures, they become susceptible to brittle fracture—that is, they experience a ductile-to-brittle transition upon cooling through a critical range of temperatures.
That we did not know how steel behaved under low temperatures in building ship husks does not make it unpredictable. It was an engineering failure.
Unpredictability would be if steel behaved fine in 2 ships, cracked in 3 ships under low temperature for becoming brittle, in another ship it turned into gelatine, and in another it behaved fine but gained a pink color.
>That we did not know how steel behaved under low temperatures in building ship husks does not make it unpredictable.
Yes it does. Or rather, 'steel as used in shipbuilding' is unpredictable (a pedantic distinction). If the properties of steel were fully understood then someone would have identified the brittle fracture concern. They did not, hence the steel-ship system behavior was not predicted. Whether it was /predictable/ is a exercise in hindsight.
>Unpredictability would be if steel behaved fine in 2 ships, cracked in 3 ships under low pressure for becoming brittle, in another ship it turned into gelatine, and in another it behaved fine but gained a pink color.
That's not how LLMs work either. If you could control all the parameters that go into training and using an LLM, they would be predictable in the same sense (in theory, given enough time to analyze inputs/outputs given fixed process parameters).
Also steel does in fact behave probabilistically, for example in the distribution of assumed pre-existing flaw sizes in castings which are very important for the structural performance. Not all liberty ships cracked.
No.
> When some normally ductile metal alloys are cooled to relatively low temperatures, they become susceptible to brittle fracture—that is, they experience a ductile-to-brittle transition upon cooling through a critical range of temperatures.
That we did not know how steel behaved under low temperatures in building ship husks does not make it unpredictable. It was an engineering failure.
Unpredictability would be if steel behaved fine in 2 ships, cracked in 3 ships under low temperature for becoming brittle, in another ship it turned into gelatine, and in another it behaved fine but gained a pink color.
>That we did not know how steel behaved under low temperatures in building ship husks does not make it unpredictable.
Yes it does. Or rather, 'steel as used in shipbuilding' is unpredictable (a pedantic distinction). If the properties of steel were fully understood then someone would have identified the brittle fracture concern. They did not, hence the steel-ship system behavior was not predicted. Whether it was /predictable/ is a exercise in hindsight.
>Unpredictability would be if steel behaved fine in 2 ships, cracked in 3 ships under low pressure for becoming brittle, in another ship it turned into gelatine, and in another it behaved fine but gained a pink color.
That's not how LLMs work either. If you could control all the parameters that go into training and using an LLM, they would be predictable in the same sense (in theory, given enough time to analyze inputs/outputs given fixed process parameters).
Also steel does in fact behave probabilistically, for example in the distribution of assumed pre-existing flaw sizes in castings which are very important for the structural performance. Not all liberty ships cracked.