What's the difference between "smart" and "next word prediction", at this point? Back when they first came out, sure, but now they can write code and create art.

What would it take for you to concede a future model was smart?

My personal take would always be that it produces something that isn't in the training set, ie: Demonstrable Creativity, or innovation.

For example, it's training set it purely engineering and code with general language data set, would be "aware" what art is, but has never seen an artistic image, aware what colours are and able to create something it never saw before.

Like a child with a paintbrush, there is an intuitive behavior that happens.

Can you name any examples of a human doing this? I learned about colors, color theory, and so forth in school. I've definitely seen artistic images before.

They can already create something they've never seen - you can prompt ChatGPT to generate images, and there's a few dedicated models for it: https://chatgpt.com/images/

Terence Tao feels like they've done innovative work on mathematics: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/amateur-armed-wit...