Not sure if we read the same post, as I cannot agree with this claim, especially under this post that exactly goes into details of what happened.
>LLM is a sorcery tech that we don't understand at all
We do, and I'm sure that people at OpenAI did intuitively know why this is happening. As soon as I saw the persona mention, it was clear that the "Nerdy" behavior puts it in the same "hyperdimensional cluster" as goblins, dungeons and dragons, orcs, fantasy, quirky nerd-culture references. Especially since they instruct the model to be playful, and playful + nerdy is quite close to goblin or gremlin. Just imagine a nerdy funny subreddit, and you can probably imagine the large usage of goblin or gremlin there. And the rewards system will of course hack it, because a text containing Goblin or Gremlin is much more likely to be nerdy and quirky than not. You don't need GPT 5 for that, you would probably see the same behavior on text completion only GPT3 models like Ada or DaVinci. They specifically dissect how it came to this and how they fixed it. You can't do that with "sorcery we dont understand". Hell, I don't know their data and I easily understood why this is going on.
>they want you to think that LLMs are smart beasts (they are not)
I mean, depends on what you consider smart. It's hard to measure what you can't define, that's why we have benchmarks for model "smartness", but we cannot expect full AGI from them. They are smart in their own way, in some kind of technical intelligence way that finds the most probable average solution to a given problem. A universal function approximator. A "common sense in a box" type of smart. Not your "smart human" smart because their exact architecture doesn't allow for that.
>and that we know what LLMs are doing (we don't)
But we do. We understand them, we know how they work, we built thousands of different iterations of them, probing systems, replications in excel, graphic implementations, all kinds of LLM's. We know how they work, and we can understand them.
The big thing we can't do as humans is the same math that they do at the same speed, combining the same weights and keeping them all in our heads - it's a task our minds are just not built for. But instead of thinking you have to do "hyperdimensional math" to understand them 100%, you can just develop an intuition for what I call "hyperdimensional surfing", and it isn't even prompting, more like understanding what words mean to an LLM and into which pocket of their weights will it bring you.
It's like saying we can't understand CPU's because there is like 10 people on earth who can hold modern x86-64 opcodes in their head together with a memory table, so they must be magic. But you don't need to be able to do that to understand how CPU's work. You can take a 6502, understand it, develop an intuition for it, which will make understanding it 100x easier. Yeah, 6502 is nothing close to modern CPU's, but the core ideas and concepts help you develop the foundations. And same goes with LLM's.
>personally side with Yann Le Cun in believing that LLM is not a path to AGI
I agree, but it is the closest we currently have and it's a tech that can get us there faster. LLM's have an insane amount of uses as glue, as connectors, as human<>machine translators, as code writers, as data sorters and analysts, as experimenters, observers, watchers, and those usages will just keep growing. Maybe we won't need them when we reach AGI, but the amount of value we can unlock with these "common sense" machines is amazing and they will only speed up our search for AGI.
We understand the low level details of how they are constructed. But we do not fully understand how higher-level behavior emerges - it is a subject of active research.
For example:
https://arxiv.org/html/2210.13382v5
https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.06129
We do understand tho, it is exactly what they were made for.
If you train it on a dataset of Othello games, or a dataset including these, you are basically creating a map of all possible moves and states that have ever happened, odds of transitions between them, effective and un-effective transitions.
By querying it, you basically start navigating the map from a spot, and it just follows the semi-randomly sampled highest confidence weights when navigating "the map".
And in the multidimensional cross-section of all these states and transitions, existence of a "board map" is implied, as it is a set of common weights shared between all of them. And it becomes even more obvious with championship models in Othello paper, as it was trained on better games in which the wider state of the board was more important than the local one, thus the overall board state mattered more for responses.
The second research you linked is also has a pretty obvious conclusion. It's telling us more about us as humans than about LLM's, about our culture and colors and how we communicate it's perception through text. If you want to try something similar, try kiki bouba style experiments on old diffusion models or old LLM's. A Dzzkwok grWzzz, will get you a much rougher and darker looking things than Olulola Opolili's cloudy vibes.
The active research is as much as:
- probing and seeing "hey lets see if funky machine also does X"
- finding a way to scientifically verify and explain LLMs behaviors we know
- pure BS in some cases
- academics learning about LLM's
And not a proof of where our understanding/frontier is. It is basically standardizing and exploring the intuition that people who actively work with models already have. It's like saying we don't understand math, because people outside the math circles still do not know all behaviors and possibilities of a monoid.