> Developing nations have the strongest incentive to cheat since they need those margins to catch up

This isn't really how it works, since greenhouse gas output is pretty much corellated to income level, and even that's an understatement, since people in rich countries buy stuff made in poor countries, and manufacturing causes emissions.

The real problem is carbon credits - rich countries can both pollute, and absolve themselves of moral responsibility by buying carbon credits - and said carbon credits are fungible, so countries' compete for the lowest selling price.

So what ends up happening is poor countries sell carbon credits by offering programs and promises, but can't/won't bear the cost, as that would mean they'd have to raise credit prices, and buyers would go elsewhere.

It's a system designed to encourage cheating while absolving moral responsibility.