Problem of induction: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Problem_of_induction

Reminds me about schools of thought on rates of change:

  > ## Accelerating Change [One School]
  >
  > Our intuitions about change are linear; we expect roughly
  > as much change as has occurred in the past over our own
  > lifetimes. But technological change feeds on itself, and
  > therefore accelerates. Change today is faster than it was
  > 500 years ago, which in turn is faster than it was 5000
  > years ago. Our recent past is not a reliable guide to how
  > much change we should expect in the future.
  >
  > Strong claim: Technological change follows smooth curves, 
  > typically exponential. Therefore we can predict with fair
  > precision when new technologies will arrive, and when they
  > will cross key thresholds, like the creation of [AI].
  >
  > Advocates: Ray Kurzweil, Alvin Toffler(?), John Smart

  https://www.yudkowsky.net/singularity/schools

Maybe similar to boy who cried wolf?

"The future aint what it used to be."