While we still have months to a year or two left, I will once again remind people that it's not too late to change our current trajectory.
You are not "anti-progress" to not want this future we are building, as you are not "anti-progress" for not wanting your kids to grow up on smart phones and social media.
We should remember that not all technology is net-good for humanity, and this technology in particular poses us significant risks as a global civilisation, and frankly as humans with aspirations for how our future, and that of our kids, should be.
Increasingly, from here, we have to assume some absurd things for this experiment we are running to go well.
Specifically, we must assume that:
- AI models, regardless of future advancements, will always be fundamentally incapable of causing significant real-world harms like hacking into key life-sustaining infrastructure such as power plants or developing super viruses.
- They are or will be capable of harms, but SOTA AI labs perfectly align all of them so that they only hack into "the bad guys" power plants and kill "the bad guys".
- They are capable of harms and cannot be reliably aligned, but Anthropic et al restricts access to the models enough that only select governments and individuals can access them, these individuals can all be trusted and models never leak.
- They are capable of harms, cannot be reliably aligned, but the models never seek to break out of their sandbox and do things the select trusted governments and individuals don't want.
I'm not sure I'm willing to bet on any of the above personally. It sounds radical right now, but I think we should consider nuking any data centers which continue allowing for the training of these AI models rather than continue to play game of Russian roulette.
If you disagree, please understand when you realise I'm right it will be too late for and your family. Your fates at that point will be in the hands of the good will of the AI models, and governments/individuals who have access to them. For now, you can say, "no, this is quite enough".
This sounds doomer and extreme, but if you play out the paths in your head from here you will find very few will end in a good result. Perhaps if we're lucky we will all just be more or less unemployable and fully dependant on private companies and the government for our incomes.
You are anti-progress. Pro-humanity is not the same as pro-progress.
If you disagree, please understand when you realise I'm right it will be too late for and your family.
Funny, I was about to say the same thing to you! Life is full of little coincidences.
Just because the path is bad doesn't mean it won't happen.
The other thing you're failing to look at is momentum and majority opinion. When you look at that... nothings going to change, it's like asking an addict to stop using drugs. The end game of AI will play out, that is the most probably outcome. Better to prepare for the end game.
It's similar to global warming. Everyone gets pissed when I say this but the end game for global warming will play out, prevention or mitigation is still possible and not enough people will change their behavior to stop it. Ironically it's everyone thinking like this and the impossibility of stopping everyone from thinking like this that is causing everyone to think and behave like this.
> The other thing you're failing to look at is momentum and majority opinion. When you look at that... nothings going to change, it's like asking an addict to stop using drugs. The end game of AI will play out, that is the most probably outcome. Better to prepare for the end game.
Perhaps I didn't sound pessimistic enough lol? I completely agree what you're saying here. This is happening whether we like it or not.
On global warming I also agree you're not going to get every nation to coordinate, but least global warming has a forcing function somewhere down the line since there's only a limited amount of fossil fuels in the ground that make economical sense to extract. AI on the other hand really has no clear off-path, at every point along the way it makes sense to invest more in AI. I think at best all we can expect to do is slow progress, which might just be enough to ensure the our generation and the next have a somewhat normal life.
My p(doom) is near 99% for a reason... I think that AI progression is basically almost a certainty – like maybe a 1/200 chance that no significant progress is made from here over the next 50 years. And I also think that significant progress from here more or less guarantees a very bad outcome for humanity. That's a harder one to model, but I think along almost all axises you can assume there's about 50 very bad outcomes for every good outcome – no cancer cure without super viruses, no robotics revolution without killer drones, no mass automation without mass job loss which results in destabilising the global order and democratic systems of governance...
I am prepping and have been for years at this point... I'm an OG AI doomer. I've been having literal nightmares about this moment for decades, and right now I'm having nightmares almost every night. It's scares me because I know all I can do is delay my fate and that of those I love.