What’s the plan for opening transit through the strait? Let Iran hold it hostage and ransom tankers through? That seems absolutely unacceptable.
How about each country sets up a blockade and demands their toll for safe passage?
The only sensible strategy is to make IRGC capitulate.
Iran doesnt have the defensive capabilities needed tomproperly defend their airspace, so their plan was to make it hurt if they were attacked.
The fact that the US seemed surprised they shut down the strait is such an immense intelligence failure.
If anyone by this point think there will be any meaningful change in Iranian society that won't be shoved down their throats imperialist style, they shouldn't be in politics or military intelligence. They should be selling pencils from a cup.
Whatever aims the US had with this illegal war, we should all admit they are a lost cause.
Unless the US allows for immense civilian suffering, I think Iran will outlast any US political patience for this war
> immense intelligence failure
There's a singular failure point. Trump was properly informed and just said "nah, they are gonna collapse before they do it".
How about listening to their demands? This was triggered by the US and Israel, it's on them to fix this mess.
Extorting an international waterway is effectively just piracy (we just don't typically use the word for state actors). We could try to end this piracy through negotiations, but letting states use piracy as a bargaining chip doesn't set a good precedent.
> letting states use piracy as a bargaining chip doesn't set a good precedent.
If piracy is bad, what precedent due the US and Israel's conduct set?
Instead of tolling the strait, Iran should arrest leaders of their neighboring states, and try them for their crimes under Iranian law.
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The US ignored all their own intelligence of decades, struck a country during negotiations, and the head of state and head of war are openly calling for war crimes while channeling all the worst aspects of former Air Force General Curtis LeMay without any of LeMay's experience.
Yes it was a terrible decision. But now what? Do you have a suggestion for ending the conflict?
Accept that you lost. Apologize for the mistake. Pay a few billions for repatriations, lift sanctions and open dialogue. But engaging into a multi-year trillion war is more likely, than accepting defeat upfront
Get an experienced Trump whisperer in to back the silly old bugger out without feeling as though he lost.
It's a mental health issue, and if you can't reel him in with gilded trinkets you'll need some cooler heads to remove him from issueing executive orders and immediately pass control to congress.
The time for fixing the flaws in the US system was 20+ years past .. but if you can get that effort in now, it'll be appreciated.
Too late: https://archive.is/UpE2M
You broke it, you bought it!
Because the usa caused it.
And the way to make the broader million strong Iranian military fanatical religious death cult capitulate is....
The civilian price will be terrible. But this could be one way: Destroy all power plants and desalination plants. Rations will be given out by “peace keepers” on the condition that IRGC members surrender and are taken prisoner. Missiles and drones can be exchanged for rations as well.
Hitting desalination plant will mostly (and almost only) hurt the population outside of IRGC power circle, exactly the population the USA incited to rebel for a few years, with pakistani help. Basically South Alborz. Iran did have a water crisis, but it was agricultural water that made them have to import more food, not an issue of drinking water. The only way to truly start a global Iranian famine (what a terrible weapon tbh, i can't help but to think less of people who think about using it, it's impossible for me to stay neutral,it is an inhumane stance, and i would be ashamed of having it) is to block Iran northern trading routes to Russia/Kazakhstan/Azerbaijan, which, to be clear, is impossible.
Ah yes the true and tried strategy of civilian bombing, worked so well for: the nazis bombing campaign against the UK.
Same goes with Russia against Ukraine.
Iran depends on desalination for around 3% of its drinking water, and has said that any such attacks on its infrastructure will see the same to any country that has support the USA/Israel military actions.
USA allies in the region will be largely uninhabitable, since they depend on power and desalination for their existence.
Still, maybe that is what Trump, the crazy bastard, wants.
Yeah, the amount of magical thinking about this conflict in the USA is disturbing. Iran is dry, but it's not just desert. The military will have backup generators and priority access to any generator infrastructure or repair capability. The ones that will suffer are the civilians, and the fanatics will just see that as martyrdom.
You can't defeat religious fanatics that welcome pain just by inflicting pain, especially by inflicting it mainly on other people.