The Iranian regime is unlikely to capitulate fully. They don't want to end up like Syria and Lebanon, where Israel can just bomb them at will.

Trump has more flexibility. Really all he needs is an endpoint that FOX News is willing to describe as a US victory. He cares more about image and perception than reality. So, in that space, there is probably room for some negotiated outcome.

Can FOX bamboozle my local gas station too to drop 40% on the price?

No, but they can explain that has nothing to do with the war. It's because Newsom won't allow new oil drilling off the CA coast.

And I expect that (or something like it), will in fact satisfy core MAGA voters.

Good point! Maga is like a religion. Trump is the god. So by definition he can't be wrong.

I'm in another country so not fooled but at same time I don't get to vote in US so I don't matter.