From the article:
>Israel could force the United States into a war with Iran at any time.
>It should go without saying that creating the conditions where the sometimes unpredictable junior partner in a security relationship can unilaterally bring the senior partner into a major conflict is an enormous strategic error, precisely because it means you end up in a war when it is in the junior partner’s interests to do so even if it is not in the senior partner’s interests to do so.
This situation is not just because we elected a clown, these people donated hundreds of millions to Trump's campaign (Miriam Adelson, Sheldon Adelson, Larry Elison, etc). The same lobby (the Israel lobby) has contributed hundreds of millions more to almost every US senator, to the point that both political parties are pretty much aligned when it comes to serving Israel. There are plenty of politicians in the Democrat party who are quietly supporting this war because at the end of the day they've been bought by the same lobby.
Kamala (the alternative candidate in the 2024 election) has her own ties to Israel, and publicly said "all options are on the table" to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. Which means had she won the election she likely would have also invaded Iran.
It goes beyond just who we elected, it's huge sums of money flowing through our political system and effectively buying our politicians.
>publicly said "all options are on the table" to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. Which means had she won the election she likely would have also invaded Iran.
Your second sentence doesn't necessarily follow from the first. Obama had similar words to say about Iran during his administration and never invaded.
We had Israel friendly politicians for at least 50 years, all of which who eagerly wanted to fuck up Iran ("Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran" anyone?) and we didn't because they were at least sober enough to understand that it was moronic and would obviously be some sort of strategic defeat or decades long boondoggle.
No president has ever been this fucking stupid.
Look, if the goal over the last year has been to destroy America, it’s economy, it’s reputation… you basically couldn’t pick a better set of actions.
It seems pretty obvious that they’re trying to turn America into Russia. Crash everything, and let the oligarchs swoop in and buy up the shattered pieces. Then keep the people divided and depressed using media and drugs.
> it's huge sums of money flowing through our political system and effectively buying our politicians
I disagree strongly with this assertion. But for sake of argument, let's assume it's true: American politics is permanently captured to Israel's interests.
That still doesn't explain this war. "I think most folks understand that this war was a misfire for the United States, but I suspect it may end up being a terrible misfire for Israel as well. Israeli security and economic prosperity both depend to a significant degree on the US-Israeli security partnership and this war seems to be one more step in a process that very evidently imperils that partnership. Suspicion of Israel – which, let us be honest, often descends into rank, bigoted antisemitism, but it is also possible to critique Israel, a country with policies, without being antisemitic – is now openly discussed in both parties. More concerning is polling suggesting that not only is Israel underwater with the American public, but more Americans sympathize with Palestinians than Israelis for the first time in American history."
If, on the other hand, we acknowledge "Netanyahu...is playing an extremely short game because it benefits him politically and personally to do so," we can allow for similar levels of narcicism and stupidity in the U.S.
Israel is currently busy annexing southern Lebanon, and I don't think it's at all decided how the "hearts and minds battle" in the US will eventually end. (Or how important the popular support even is)
So right now, the state of the war is a win for Israel.
Israel isn't "annexing southern Lebanon". Israel already controlled southern Lebanon and withdrew. Even recently Israel was deeper in southern Lebanon and withdrew - and is now paying the price for that. Israel was already in Beirut .. and not so long ago ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Beirut )
Israel is pushing back Hezbollah that's attacking Israel's north. Hezbollah decided to join the war and it's firing at Israeli civilians and towns with statistical weapons (rockets).
It does seem like it's at least some sort of short term win for Israel but it remains to be seen what the long term game looks like.
And incidentally destroying all villages and emptying the area of all residents while they at it, then destroying the bridges that connect the region to the rest of the country.
Katz is indeed still talking about a "buffer zone", while Smotrich demands a "permanent change of borders". The settler movement has already drawn maps.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-03-...
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-politics/2026-03-...
> Israel already controlled southern Lebanon and withdrew.
I don't get what you want to say with that statement. It was already theirs to begin with?
I meant to say if Israel really wanted it then it already had it.
It is a requirement under international law to let civilians evacuate areas where fighting is happening. If Israel accomodates that then they're engaging in ethnic cleansing. If they don't then they're engaging in genocide. Maybe the anti-Israelis should spell a more detailed and acceptable plan of how Israel can get Lebanon to stop lobbing rockets into its cities. If Hezbollah is using villages as cover then they become military objective. Check out what villages on the Ukraine/Russia frontlines look like or in any other war. Hezbollah fired hundreds of rockets already from inside the city of Tyre at Israel. Many armies would just flatten it with artillery under this situation.
Smotritch and the settler movement don't get to decide.
But yes, the argument that if Israel doesn't extract a price for aggression is gaining momentum over time. Because it seems nothing else works. Lebanon has no reason to attack Israel. It's not "occupied", it has no "right of resistance", or whatever other bullshit reasons people give to the right of others to lob rockets into Israeli population centers and terrorize its civilians. The Lebanese government gets it as well but unfortunately has no ability to control Hezbollah who are loyal to Iran.
Either way at this time it is not being annexed and there is no plan to annex it. What will likely happen is that some buffer zone will remain occupied until the Lebanese government and UN resolutions decisions demanding Hezbollah is disarmed are applied. If Hezbollah keeps rearming and keeps attacking Israel then we can expect that buffer zone to keep growing over the long term and the retaliation from Israel to become as severe as required to remove that threat. The main change in Israel's policy following Oct 7th is that it will not get into a scenario where it can be surprised again and it will not allow enemy forces to build up the capability to surprise it.
> how important the popular support even is
To see the effect of losing popularity, see how AIPAC's power in the Democratic party has begun to wane following their defeat in New Jersey.
A common mistake those deploying money in politics make is forgetting that the endgame is votes. The money helps buy votes. But if you're losing votes, you're losing votes.
> right now, the state of the war is a win for Israel
If hostilities end right now, yes. There is zero indication that endpoint is proximate.
> If, on the other hand, we acknowledge "Netanyahu...is playing an extremely short game because it benefits him politically and personally to do so," we can allow for similar levels of narcicism and stupidity in the U.S.
Sure. I don't doubt that many US politicians would start a costly war if it benefitted them. But who are the US politicians it has benefitted?
Trump hasn't gained anything from this war. Nor has Rubio or anyone else in his administration. Netanyahu, however, has benefitted politically and personally, even if only in the short term. Any effort to understand or explain the war should incorporate that.
That is why this conflict is so interesting and momentous, this is a fundamental change in the Middle East.
Israel had 2 major opponents remaining the region: Iraq and Iran.
We invaded Iraq and regime-changed them at the behest of neocons:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_C...
>Calls for regime change in Iraq
>Shortly after the September 11 attacks, the PNAC sent a letter to President George W. Bush, specifically advocating regime change through "a determined effort to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq". The letter suggested that "any strategy aiming at the eradication of terrorism and its sponsors must include a determined effort to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq", even if no evidence linked Iraq to the September 11 attacks.
>https://www.twf.org/News/Y2004/0111-Before911.html
The neocons are/were a group of American Zionists, both Jewish and Christian.
Now we are working to eliminate the only remaining rival to Israel in the region: Iran.
Israel will be free to grow into a global superpower after this is complete, Israel is the only nuclear power in the region, they sit at the nexus of the eastern and western hemispheres and on top of abundant energy reserves. _They will not need US support anymore_. This is the fundamental gamble that they are taking with this war. They know that they will lose US popular support both on the left and the right, but if it pays off they will not need that support anymore and will be free to dominate the region.
> Which means had she won the election she likely would have also invaded Iran.
Wow, what an insult, to call her as stupid/cheaply buyable as Trump.
I'm pretty sure she wouldn't have had an alcoholic wife-beating former Fox teleprompter-reader who would not have been able to tell her why it'd be a catastrophe to start bombing Iran... As weak Biden was/appeared to be, at least he had a competent team (ok, it wasn't competent enough to pushback against Adolf Netanyahu).
Probably Harris would've tried to restore the Obama-Iran deal like Biden did (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_rel...), a job that Biden failed because a particular fuckwit fucked it up before him...
For me that was the best insight in the whole article. Here are a few extra sentences for context:
> So Iran would now have to assume that an Israeli air attack was also likely an American air attack. It was hardly an insane assumption – evidently according to the Secretary of State, American intelligence made the exact same assessment. But the result was that by bombing the Iranian nuclear facilities in June of 2025, the Trump administration created a situation where merely by launching a renewed air campaign on Iran, Israel could force the United States into a war with Iran at any time.
Nonsense. Of course Democrats are also on Israel's side. The US will always take Israel's side in any Middle East dispute. But it's only this infantile man and his clown cart that is stupid enough to go along with any and every hare brained idea that Israel puts forth.
2 things.
First, this "both sides bad" take isn't fooling anyone. Everyone sees through your bullshit that you are pro Trump. Like its easy to tell from just this comment, but if anyone thinks Im being super presumptions, feel free to looks at your comment history and you will see Im right.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46890675#46891294
Secondly, the shitty thing for you is that the conservatives in charge have shown themselves to be just very inept. They could have honesty just rode the rest of Trumps term in silence, and Trump would still have been very popular despite the tarrifs, but they had to fuck it up in the most grandeur way possible of starting a new war.
Which means that Republicans are going to lose the support of the average person who is clueless about politics, and can vote one way or another based on vibes, and
Which means Dems are likely going to take a lot of the power back. At which point, it will become socially acceptable to "punish" conservatives and pro Trump people. There is already work going on to process internet comments and extract patterns of speech to cross correlate them across varying accounts on social media to id certain people, and if id'ed you better believe your work, your family, your friends, and whomever else you are going to be connected to are going to get spammed and your life ruined as much as possible.
So Imma be the nice guy and tell you to tighten up you OPSEC because you are doing an extremely poor job at it.
Israel is entirely dependent on USA. If USA says they cant attack, they wont.
Are you sure you haven't got that the wrong way around? As an outsider it looks to me as if Israel shouts 'jump' and the USA says 'how high?'. Which is bizarre when you look at how much support the US gives Israel.
Not bizarre - Israel shouts "money" and the USA says "how much?"
Those bribes to all the senators and reps really pays off, doesn't it? Sadly it's our tax dollars that it is paying off with.
No, I do not have it other way round. Israel defense and economy both depend on USA. Which is why it took mentally challenged president to start an expensive war that only Israel and Russia benefit. Previous presidents including Trump himself did told NO to Israel in the past.
Israel wanted this war, it is not like they would be victims here. But USA is NOT a victim either. Hegseth, Trump and co love the violence, love the bombing and love to cosplay as masculine men. They do not get play the "they made me do it" card.
Third, for christ sake, they sent Witkoff and Kushner to negotiate. Lets not pretend there was any honest attempt at negotiations or war avoidance.
But most US politicians are dependent on Israel-aligned donors, so the US isn't going to say they can't attack. They'll do what they need to in order to keep the money flowing in so they can get re-elected.
> the US isn't going to say they can't attack
America has told Israel not to attack multiple times. Hell, Trump has held Netanyahu back before.