> There won't be 45% unemployment because the minute AI starts replacing current engineering skills for real is the minute the people it targets wake up and start learning how to work with AI coding agents that will be dramatically better than today. 

i have a slightly different take: the theory of bullshit jobs* says most likely we will have an increase in the amount of work expected which will just increase the amount of management and specialists (think scrum master and friends for ai) and busywork needed for all this new technology, so most definitely "jobs" will not be going away imo

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs