if you can identify where and how prediction markets are wrong, why aren't you applying that and making millions?
> - Prediction markets generally become more accurate as the diversity of the bettor pool grows. The users of polymarket and Kalshi heavily skew towards young men from certain socioeconomic groups, who may be biased towards one or the other outcome.
Citation? If your small population is high IQ, accurate predictors and you diversify to average IQ population, won't the accuracy go down not up?
> why aren't you applying that and making millions?
Knowing that something is a lousy predictor doesn't mean that you have a better one.
A lot of predictions are binary. If you know the market is wrong, then you take the other side of the prediction.