#2 only works if the public is allowed to invest when the new technology is in its early stages, which is currently not the case. Microsoft went public in 1986 at a valuation of $2.3 billion (in today's dollars). What's OpenAI / Anthropic going to be worth by the time they IPO? $1 trillion? $2 trillion?
Eh, buying and holding the S&P 500 (the Vanguard Bogleheads strategy) has allowed a lot of people to retire early.