Many of the comments in this discussion remind me of that Rothchild analysis in the second half of the 1800s when France had problems with a revolution.
> A friend asked Baron Rothschild what he was doing in response to Paris Commune:
> “Why,” replied the famous banker musingly, “French government bonds are selling at sixty-five. I bought five millions yesterday.”
> “What!” exclaimed the friend. “Bought bonds? Why, France is without a government, and the sewers of Paris are running red with blood!”
> “Yes, it is deplorable,” remarked the baron, “but if the sewers of Paris were not running red with blood, I could not buy bonds at this price. France will survive this terrible calamity, as she survived the Revolution, and the seven coalitions against her of all the powers of Europe. Her credit will again be the highest of any nation, and her bonds will sell again above par.”
People who oppose gambling tend to see this as a foreign capitalist selfishly making money off of the dire situation of the French people. People who do not oppose gambling see it as financial support of the French in their times of trouble when others have abandoned them.
This has nothing to do with opposing gambling. It has everything to do with, say, opposing gamblers poisoning horses to win bets.
You applied the razor very well here.
There will always be a market.
Surely you can see the difference between dealing in a legitimate asset like a government bond, which requires a market of buyers and sellers, versus this new extraneous layer of prediction contracts, where the only defensible economic purpose is some weak information signal.