The source is a company that works with Polymarket and sells Polymarket data (as well as Kalshi and other gambling platforms).
The source is a company that works with Polymarket and sells Polymarket data (as well as Kalshi and other gambling platforms).
The findings are consistent with academic research that these markets are well calibrated.
Could be, you should reference the academic research then.
Marginal revolution has been talking up prediction markets since before they existed. In fact polymarket probably was created after its founder read Cowen's thoughts on prediction markets.