> fully ceding the research front is not a good way to keep the EU competitive
Tech is ultimately a red herring as far as what's needed to keep the EU competitive. The EU has a trillion dollar hole[0] to fill if they want to replace US military presence, and current net import over 50% of their energy. Unfortunately the current situation in Iran is not helping either of these as they constrains energy further and risks requiring military intervention.
0. https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/europes-1-trillion-race-to-...
Hard disagree, military might isn't going to secure anybody into the future, modern society and our economies will only get more vulnerable as time goes on and large wars or engagements will just push economies closer to collapse. And without a solid modern economy to back up the military, modern military will fall apart.
Right, they really need a military industrial complex to be "competitive" :eyeroll. Are you suggesting regressing to the stone age?
Europe doesn't want to be reliant (understandably) on the US military for defense, because if they are, as Trump has demonstrated, they will be pressured to make concessions not in their interests.
The need for a military is tightly coupled with the EU's need for energy. You can see this in the immediate impact that the war in Iran has had on Germany's natural gas prices [0]. But already unable to defend itself from Russia, EU countries are in a tough spot since they can't really afford to expend military resources defending their energy needs, and yet also don't have the energy independence to ignore these military engagements without risk. Meanwhile Russia has spend the last 4 years transition to a wartime economy and is getting hungry for expanded resource acquisition.
The world hasn't fundamentally changed since the stone age: humans need resources to survive and if there aren't enough people for those resources then violence will decide who has access the them.
0. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/germany-natural-gas-t...
France has nukes and is making more. They're fine.
> But already unable to defend itself from Russia, EU countries
I'm sorry, but this is just crazy talk. Russia cannot enforce its will on Ukraine, one of the poorest and most corrupt countries in Europe, with a (at time of invasion) relatively small and underequipped army. Yes it has grown through conscription, has been equipped by foreign and domestic supplies, has made some brilliant advances in tech and tactics... but when it was attacked, it was weak. And Russia lost its best troops and equipment failing to defat that.
Why would anyone think that the Russia that cannot defeat Ukraine would fare better against Poland? Let alone French warning strike nukes, or French, British, German troops and planes and what not.
It’s funny how you basically explain precisely why the war in Ukraine has gone on so long but refuse to recognize it.
As Russia’s economy has continually reshaped over the last 4 years there has been increasingly a domestic demand for war. You point out all the evidence yourself:
> Yes it has grown through conscription, has been equipped by foreign and domestic supplies, has made some brilliant advances in tech and tactics...
Russia (well its oligarchs and rulers) has increasingly benefited from perpetual war. Yes, soon it will need to switch positions to expansion to maintain its economy, but this situation in Iran presents a perfect opportunity if things play it Russia’s interests.
You also will find that if you paid any attention to European politics over the years this is a serious topic to all leaders there.
But I don’t mind if you’re not convinced, I had similar people on hacker news unconvinced Russia could sustain operations in Russia longer than a few months because they were doing so poorly… 4 years ago.
> Russia (well its oligarchs and rulers) has increasingly benefited from perpetual war
No it has not. It has a ballooning debt crisis (at different levels - regions, military contractors, banks) which will pop at some point; the budget is so unbalanced they're projecting to reduce military spending (unlikely), increase taxes, and still have a pretty heavy deficit. They've been given the gift of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, so oil and gas revenues will grow, which will definitely buy them more time. But they are running against a clock, and they cannot win in Ukraine.
> You also will find that if you paid any attention to European politics over the years this is a serious topic to all leaders there.
Yes, because Russia only responds to strength, so you need to be strong militarily to be able to dissuade them from attacking you. That doesn't mean that realistically they have a chance of winning any conflict.