> It’s very disputable whether BEVs are industry’s future
The same cannot be said for batteries and electric motors. We are still quite far from technological limits for the platform. It doesn't seem disputable at all that a platform that can still evolve and improve with significant room for growth will eventually overtake one that has peaked.
Also, oil will only get more expensive in the long term, and electricity is going to get cheaper, with more and more solar panels generating electricity locally "for free".
> oil will only get more expensive in the long term
Will it? Oil price will reach an equilibrium because lower demand due to electrification will lead to lower prices, which will increase higher consumption.
There are enough low cost oil producers like Saudi Arabia to keep the pipes filled with oil at whatever the prevailing market price is.
The price of gas is $9 per gallon in Germany right now.
Oil (prior to the current pointless war) was pretty cheap, though. Adjusted inflation cheaper than e.g. it was at any point between 1975 and 85.
> As a technology, ICE is pretty much close to its peak. It's very hard to imagine significant improvements in ICE as far as efficiency, weight, and power output goes
What makes you say that? Jet engine manufacturers are constantly making improvements, and one of the biggest recent breakthroughs has been around using proprietary alloys in the construction of some parts to make them lighter and able to operate at hotter temperatures, thus increasing efficiency. I'm not working on any engines, but from a layman's perspective I don't see why there couldn't be material science improvements made to combustion engines.
Your example is from a high-value engine where the switch to proprietary alloys has significant savings in a jet engine.
ICE for cars? Do you think the same constraints apply?
No, but I think if material science improvements can be made in jet engines, there is no reason to think combustion engines for car are "complete" and nothing around them could be improved. They're much less expensive, but at a much larger volume, and they have at least a few decades of future - even if we assume all of the developed world moves to EVs in the next decade or so, which is unrealistic already, there is all of the rest of the world. Most African countries don't have stable power for all of their populations, EVs are simply not going to work there as the main vehicle type. Then add in trucks, where the weight of the batteries makes them impractical for heavy duty long distance trucking. There are improvements, but it will still be many years before they are available, and decades before they've replaced everything already existing.
As a logical exercise, let's consider what are some of the top technological advancements in ICE and ICE drivetrain components over the last 20 years. CVTs? Nissan's VVEL? What do you think are noteworthy automotive ICE technological advancements we can look forward to in the consumer space? Where exactly do you see automotive applications of ICE advancing in the next 10 years?
On the other hand, it seems pretty easy to see the exact opposite with electric/hybrid drivetrains. Many innovations and advancements. It's also easy to see the roadmap for advancements (see what the Chinese are doing). Battery swaps? New chemistries? Solid state batteries? Compact axial flux motors? Faster charging electrical architectures? Endless space for technological advancement and growth because it's so early.
False dichotomy. What ICEs are or aren't has zero impact on whether BEVs are the future.
You can pretty much see the writing on the wall; sure, one can bury one's head in the sand, but it is almost certain that in say 15-20 years, BEV will become the majority of vehicles on the road even if the US and Germans fight to the very end to keep ICE alive.
Yes, Betamax is undoubtedly the future.