Interesting! There's a lot I don't know about this, but I know a little more now. I'll admit, I naively thought this would be more regular than it appears to be [0].
Interesting! There's a lot I don't know about this, but I know a little more now. I'll admit, I naively thought this would be more regular than it appears to be [0].
The Earth is generally expected to spin more slowly over time, due to tidal friction. But it has been spinning faster and faster since the 1960s. As shown in the figure in the wikipedia article [0].
I have read numerous explanations, but haven't found a really authoritative discussion.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leap_second#Rationale
Wow that's really interesting. A great quote form the article:
> In 2021, it was reported that Earth was spinning faster in 2020 and experienced the 28 shortest days since 1960, each of which lasted less than 86399.999 seconds.[24] This caused engineers worldwide to discuss a negative leap second and other possible timekeeping measures, some of which could eliminate leap seconds.[25] The shortest day ever recorded was 29 June 2022, at 1.59 milliseconds less than 24 hours.[26] In a 2024 paper published in Nature, Duncan Agnew of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography projects that the water from increasing ice cap melting will migrate to the equator and thus cause the rate of rotation to slow down again.[26]
They teach us Scientific Realism in school, but reality is that we are really using Instrumentalism.
That said, no one wants to admit it, so contemporary science follows Falsification, where we find ways to not actually make claims about reality. (Which as an Instrumentalist/pragmatist, I love Karl Popper, its just not metaphysical truth. And that would break Popper's heart)
> They teach us Scientific Realism in school.
I'd argue the opposite is true for anyone who has studied statistics which is largely built on Instrumentalism (think George Box: 'All models are wrong, but some are useful') and Popperian falsification (Null Hypothesis testing). We are absolutely taught to treat models as predictive tools rather than metaphysical truths.
Statistics is even presented like metaphysical truth. Or at least my experience in engineering school.
And taking fluid dynamics, we used renyolds number, which is a made up ratio that helps for decision making... Its not like when we answered questions, we could answer the grey area we are discussing.
If I had to guess, I think its due to western civilization being built of Platonism (and even Aristotle was infected). Our science and morality is later built by platonic realism. Only in the last 100-ish years are we starting to get over it.
No they do not teach Scientific Realism in schools. We're taught the scientific method and then build upon that.
I can see how someone could misunderstand or forget what they're taught though.
A distinction without a difference. The only way we can interact with the world is via senses, via instruments, via measurement. We can rehash solipsism, but seeing as how that is an immediate dead end we all agree there is a physical reality. If there is in fact a reality, then we are measuring something real.
>we are measuring something real.
I think it matters. No the planets are not doing circles around the sun. Circles don't actually exist, they are doing elipses.
Also 'real' has quite a few meanings. If I ask the question 'Are you closer to a keyboard or the gym?' does that question exist?
This kind of stuff does end up mattering. It becomes much more noticeable in psychology (and biology). If you read Freud, Adler, or Jung, you will say 'Oh extrovert! I've seen that before!' But then you realize its vague and almost always true. Its like a horoscope.
So if we think there is a truth to reality, we look for perfect relations. If we think its impossible for humans to figure out, we look for best fits.