Just this afternoon I was reading an account of one of the earliest known betting ledgers, the "Betting Book" at White's, a private member's club in London. In the 18th century, one of the most common bets taken up by members was which Lord or nobleman would outlive another. One bet had a note under it that the wager was not settled up by the bettors because the subjects both died of suicide within a few months of each other.

I'm unfamiliar with Kalshi's ethics. Would they have paid out if only non-famous human beings died in the ousting?

Well, certainly, if they had chosen otherwise it is unlikely they could have continued to operate:

> ...the Commission may determine that such agreements, contracts, or transactions are contrary to the public interest if the agreements, contracts, or transactions involve—(I) activity that is unlawful under any Federal or State law; (II) terrorism; (III) assassination; (IV) war; (V) gaming; or (VI) other similar activity determined by the Commission, by rule or regulation, to be contrary to the public interest.

https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2024-12125/p-93

I always thought that "Gray's Sports Almanac" in Back to the Future 2 would quickly become useless as all sorts of factors after large public bets would cause events to change and sports scores just wouldn't line up anymore.

I guess it is just human nature to gamble on everything, anything. And when government puts down a heavy hand they turn to more lucrative underground shops.

What is xcancel?

Only bets on fake world events?