Placing a bet based on insider national security information should be regarded as leaking. But the markets aren't the problem here.
Placing a bet based on insider national security information should be regarded as leaking. But the markets aren't the problem here.
Well markets give a huge financial incentive for it. Before you had to get paid a bribe for an intelligence agent. Now you can just "legitimately" bet on a market. It's a LOT easier and more spread out, I imagine.
The existence of banks gives a huge financial incentive to rob them. That doesn't mean we should get rid of banks. It means we should create a huge disincentive to rob them (which we do). Same thing needs to happen to people using national intelligence secrets in prediction markets.
That requires active participation in regulation and enforcement.
If anything, this administration is moving the other direction when it comes to betting markets, crypto, investments, etc.
What you are saying is logical for how enforcement should happen, but it isn’t happening that way.
You couldn’t design a better system for incentivizing leaks if you were trying. Hell, the CEO literally said as much. Not sure how you can conclude the markets aren’t the problem.
Yeah I had to reread that part... I was like, no way the CEO of Polymarket publicly said on record that it incentivizes leaks. Had to check to make sure I wasn't on the onion.
The CFTC has been defunded and dismantled. The industries it regulated don’t even bother to put on a mask anymore.
Let's make bets on "xxxx leaked yyyy info", so people will be incentived to discover/denounce who cheated.