Look at that trajectory one more time and tell me how 'expected' it is.

The first stages of a worldwide recession is what it looks like to me.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1T9dv&heig...

There are way more retired people as a percentage.

I need you to very carefully consider the x axis of those 2 plots. Think about it real hard.

Ok, and?