Can mostly second this.

Working on a side project, and it's truly incredible how good AI has been for MOST of it.

Also, bewildering how truly awful it was at some seemingly random things - like writing not terribly difficult Assembly that mostly exists already to do Go-style hot splitting (to even get it to understand what older versions of Go did).

I suspect it'll still be 3 years before AI is as good at the FAANGs as it is outside, just due to the ungodly huge context and the amount of proprietary stuff it would need to learn to use effectively, plus getting all the access to it, etc.

But, even when it does all that, that's maybe 33% of the job.

I just don't see mass layoffs at the really big tech companies, unless it's more focused on just cutting and cutting than actually because people have been made redundant.

Even at the management level, I'm not sure we're going to see managers managing teams of 30 instead of teams of 10.

At the end of the day, a manager needs to know what you're doing and if you're any good at it, and there's only so many people a person can do that effectively with.

Maybe low-level managers go away, and it's just TLMs, but someone still needs to do your 1-on-1s and babysit those that need babysat.