I think we're closer to the 2nd than the 1st example, at least outside of the united states.

The issue isn't just tire abrasion (which will be much higher w/ EVs), but local emissions, which are *really* bad. Like we're all fucked due to CO2, but the kids getting messed up before adulthood due to chemical/particulate damage to their lungs are getting it from ICE vehicles.

We could argue that personal electric vehicles allow for ICE cars to have a graceful transition rather than the shock changeover that's needed or that the use of either crowds out mass transit, but that's just to say that if a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his ass hopping.