AIPAC is a thing...
And now of course you're going to label me an AIPAC nutter, but in this particular case I think the evidence is fairly plain given the collaboration between the two countries on this. If Israel had done this by their lonesome or if the US had not involved Israel then you could make the case that they reached this point independently, right now it looks to me as if collusion is a 100% certainty and that the US is executing a foreign policy that will not benefit it but that will benefit Israel. It also makes me wonder whether this will end up as a Venzuela re-run where the top names change but everything else remains the same, just with US companies the beneficiaries of the oil, which is, besides policy the main driver behind these things anyway.
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There is no comparison between Iran and Venezuela. Maduro had Cuban guards because his people seem to dislike him more than the US; his administration included. Also Maduro is hated by both neighboring countries elites and peasants. Situation couldn’t be more different in Iran, there are hundreds of thousands of committed supporters in Iran and Arabic countries (watch some videos where the Arabs celebrates the strikes at their own countries)
Also in power balance, Venezuela is a joke militarily. Iran has the capacity to end calm life in the GCC and possibly disrupt oil flows. Really an orange and apple comparison. Case in point today, Iran was able to project its missile to several countries in a couple hours.
> Iran has the capacity to end calm life in the GCC and possibly disrupt oil flows
I'm genuinely surprised the mines haven't rolled out, to the point that I believe they won't be. (They were–in the initial strikes–destroyed or incapacitated, or they never existed.)
> Iran was able to project its missile to several countries in a couple hours
To minimal effect. And every launch exposes a missile and firing team to American and Israeli jets flyig in uncontested airspace.
There is credible reporting (Reuters etc.) that ships are being turned around, so it does appear that the mines (or at least threat thereof) have been deployed. Either way, as long as the threat of sinking is alive the strait is uninsurable and is for all practical purposes closed.
> ships are being turned around, so it does appear that the mines (or at least threat thereof) have been deployed
I'd assume, until further evidence, it's because the Strait is an active war zone.
Fair point, but the IRGC telling ships to turn around, as opposed to the ships themselves doing it (as per reporting) would imply that the Strait has been blockaded in some fashion. It remains to be seen if this is all a bluff, I'm just as skeptical as this would be their last option, but given the strikes on other Gulf countries, the threat seems a bit more plausible of actually being real.
That regime has absolutely nothing to lose at this point and they will use whatever they've got.
Agreed that you can't compare Venezuela and Iran. But I challenge you to check which are the top three countries in the world by oil reserves.
Israel needs it, Trump wants it, this was going to happen either now or next year. The potential for escalation is massive and I sincerely hope that it will not. Iran is a problem, but Israel is also a problem and the United States is becoming a bigger problem every day. It would be nice if the people in charge of this planet could hold back from throwing matches into the powder kegs for a while.
Reserves are irrelevant, you can’t pump oil from the ground at a moment notice and building the infrastructure requires long-term stability especially for oil infrastructure which is large and hard to protect. Iran does x4 times the volume of Venezuela in oil and x10 in gas.
The issue with Iran is that it’s selling energy outside of the US system. This was less of an issue 20 years ago when the persians needed to funnel the money back to the Western system at a cost so that they can access world trade. The situation changed today as they can mostly survive on China imports and completely bypass the US financial system. Iran has half the exports (in total value!) of Tunisia at x8-9 the population. Something doesn’t add up.
> It would be nice if the people in charge of this planet could hold back from throwing matches into the powder kegs for a while
That’s not how the world works. The relative peace of the last 20 years or so was mostly because US hegemony was uncontested. This might be no longer the case. Someone in the far East will be watching for opportunities.
> Reserves are irrelevant, you can’t pump oil from the ground at a moment notice and building the infrastructure requires long-term stability especially for oil infrastructure which is large and hard to protect.
Who says these are rational actors. I think it is a bit much for coincidence.
> Iran does x4 times the volume of Venezuela in oil and x10 in gas.
Until yesterday. We'll see whether their infrastructure is going to survive this war.
> The issue with Iran is that it’s selling energy outside of the US system.
I'm well aware of that.
> This was less of an issue 20 years ago when the persians needed to funnel the money back to the Western system at a cost so that they can access world trade. The situation changed today as they can mostly survive on China imports and completely bypass the US financial system. Iran has half the exports (in total value!) of Tunisia at x8-9 the population. Something doesn’t add up.
What doesn't add up is that there are a lot of parties that would like to see regime change in Iran, including a lot of Iranians. The question always is whether the fire that you light remains contained or not and Iran is very much not like Venezuela in that sense.
> That’s not how the world works.
I'm well aware of that too. But that doesn't change how I feel about it.
> The relative peace of the last 20 years or so was mostly because US hegemony was uncontested. This might be no longer the case.
In no small part because of the idiot-in-charge.
> Someone in the far East will be watching for opportunities.
And that's precisely why I think there is a massive potential for escalation here.
> Until yesterday. We'll see whether their infrastructure is going to survive this war.
None of their energy infra. was hit and I don’t see it happening. Hitting their energy infra. will result in them hitting the GCC oil infra. This is more likely, in my opinion, part of the negotiations. They couldn’t agree to the terms of their power projection, so they went to the field to test it out.
> What doesn't add up is that there are a lot of parties that would like to see regime change in Iran, including a lot of Iranians.
You are buying into Western propaganda. Not that I know about the conditions on Iran and the Mullah popularity. It’s not possible to gauge that since freedom of information is limited there but I wouldn’t trust the latest campaign either. Only time will tell on this one.
> In no small part because of the idiot-in-charge.
This is where we disagree; though I could agree that the democrats will have handled this differently but not necessarily in a non-violent way.
> And that's precisely why I think there is a massive potential for escalation here.
I still think this one will pass. Though China will probably stick to its own deadlines when it’s ready on its own terms.
ah here come the jews run the USA conspiracy. HN does not dissapoint. Well, no I am dissapointed. But not surprised.
Reddit and HN have been taken over by leftie tankie zoomers and thridies who want to see the West fall while then dream of a life in Europe or worse, live here.
Even CNN is reporting that this unprovoked attack was lined up with a Jewish holiday celebrating the killing of non-jews: https://x.com/chrisbrunet/status/2027665287982502195
The first thing the US/Israel did was murder 80+ children with an attack on a girl's elementary school (warning graphic): https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/2027787999409266991
Meanwhile, jewish israelis are celebrating the attack in their bunkers: https://x.com/SZade15/status/2027695217286189363
The attack was reportedly timed for a surprise attack on Iranian leaders who happened to be in the same location at this time. They even attacked during the daytime for a risky surprise attack. To suggest the attack had anything to do with the holiday is beyond ridiculous. Also ridiculous to think they would intentionally attack a random school.
There is a lot of breaking news, much of it not verified. wrt bombing schools, people should be cautious about claims like this, this early.
There's lots of footage already, I just posted one link. You can see many dead children for yourself.
We should wait for more corroboration before we jump to conclusions about circumstance and attribution. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, I've seen Russian's use footage and images from other conflicts to claim Ukraine is doing something underhanded.
We've already seen Israel do this over and over again in Gaza. We've seen Zionist media try to lie about it, but if you've been following what Israel has been doing for the past two years, you'll know that this is how they operate.
These days kinetic wars are accompanied by online information wars. What's the harm in waiting for corroboration and more evidence in a rapidly evolving situation?
You can follow the reporting here, and this is by western outlets that have proven to be unreliable when it comes to reporting about Israel: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=iran+school&t=brave&ia=news&iar=ne...
Those all cite Iranian government sources.
It's certainly credible that US/Israel bombed a school. But it's also credible that Iran would lie about US/Israel bombing a school. In these situations we need a higher standard of evidence than "credible". I don't think that's a radical position.
I find Iranian government sources far more credible than Zionist sources. Believe what you want, but this was an unprovoked act of aggression following two years of genocide and 75 years of ethnic cleansing. It's crystal clear who is responsible for all of the death and destruction.
You've been uncritically supportive of Israel in plenty of other threads on HN already so I'm not sure if your exaggeration of my comment should even be taken serious.
Israel has a massive lobbying effort in the United States and that's not exactly news, on top of that there have been many documented pieces of interaction between Trump and Nethanyahu that seem to be evidence that Trump is doing a lot of things to please Israel, besides that they are actively collaborating on these attacks.
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> Are you a tankie or socialist?
FFS man.
As for stalking your account: if you don't want your comment history to be visible then don't participate on HN.
Well, we're certainly not collaborating with West Africa to bomb France. Not even the Philippines, Taiwan, and Uyghur and Hong Kong dissidents to bomb China.
I mean, it could just be the evangelicals hoping to start a holy war that heralds the End of Days. And now that I type that out, I have to agree with your implicit position that it's definitely the more rational catalyst.
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