I'd say you're right, except that Trump is near death (maybe) and (more importantly) very unpopular.

He's more polarizing than usual maybe with stronger approve/unapprove ratings but his net popularity is in line with most 2nd term presidents at this stage.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/trump-obama-...

Yes, not historically unpopular, but enough that "I'm running for a third term" will be hard to pull-off.

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