I know that, that's why I'm asking the question. But if cost and complexity grow drastically with scale, my question is even more relevant, isn't it ? If it's easy to spin up a competitor, we should rather see more small companies, not less.
I know that, that's why I'm asking the question. But if cost and complexity grow drastically with scale, my question is even more relevant, isn't it ? If it's easy to spin up a competitor, we should rather see more small companies, not less.
From a pure numbers standpoint, absolutely. We're already seeing a wave of folks shipping more PoC products with AI tools. The distinction is that most of these aren't true "competitors" to established companies, more filling gaps and niches if they aren't just a toy clone.
That's the more interesting angle here to me. Rather than building a direct competitor at 10% the cost, agent assisted tooling could make it individually profitable to target small cap, cottage industry type problems that have too much nuance for a one size product. Areas where someone already has deep business insight that provides the value proposition moreso than the labor around coding. Not competitors at 10% the cost, but filling niches that wouldn't have been profitable otherwise.
The danger is that if agents get more capable, the niche markets start to erode. If a generic solution agent can acquire domain knowledge and coordinate with customers, even these 'competitors' become risky again.
There have always been a million small POC clones of popular apps. Twitter, Trello, <insert popular todo app>, etc.
Doing a subset of what a market leader is doing, but worse, with no path to scale or support, isn’t going to go anywhere.
Yesterday someone vibe coded a password manager in 20 minutes and posted it here. Should anyone use it? Absolutely not. It’s a security nightmare, won’t get support, and the architecture is complete trash, requiring the use to run a local server the background that the app and browser extension talk to. Not to mention it will likely never see an update.
Successful competitors do something new. A lazy vibe coded clone doesn’t nothing new, and they don’t even do all the basics.